Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 4-0 Dundee United.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Heart of Midlothian, 26% draw, 34% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Heart of Midlothian at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 5J. McCartD
- 7C. MillerD
- 16B. SpittalM
- 12T. RenaudM
- 29S. KerjotaM
- 10C. BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 30R. FultonG
- 22T. MagnussonM
- 11P. KaboreF
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 74R. MatoF
- 21J. WilsonF
- 78L. MendyM
- 24M. KamaraD
- 1J. WaltonG
- 23J. RawlinsD
- 3B. EsselinkD
- 18M. ForbesD
- 11W. FerryD
- 5V. SeveljM
- 10D. TaitM
- 12E. AgyeiM
- 21J. RandallF
- 15L. RoseF
- 77D. BennieF
- 30J. AmissahG
- 20N. FarrugiaF
- 8P. CamaraM
- 6R. GrahamD
- 9Z. SapsfordM
- 14J. EskesenM
- 7M. MerghemF
- 4I. IovuD
- 93I. MetsokoF
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United
Heart of Midlothian
All competitions we cover
- L1-6away to Benfica6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
- L0-2Sturm Graz28 July 2026
- L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026
Dundee United
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Heart of Midlothian had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 20 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United
- 31 January 2026Dundee United 0–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 9 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 10 August 2025Dundee United 2–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 6 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 5 January 2025Dundee United 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Dundee United
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- Cláudio Braga62
- C. Miller51
- J. McPake36
Dundee United
GoalsAssists
- J. Randall33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Heart of Midlothian beat Dundee United 4–0. The model had made a win for Heart of Midlothian its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: T. Renaud 4' for Heart of Midlothian, C. Miller (penalty) 12' for Heart of Midlothian, C. Braga 56' for Heart of Midlothian, J. McPake 67' for Heart of Midlothian. On expected goals it finished 2.12–0.54.