Heart of Midlothian
vs
Dundee United
The model makes it 40% Heart of Midlothian, 26% draw, 34% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 1.52, Dundee United 1.37.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Heart of Midlothian
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
Dundee United
- D1-1Rangers31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee United
- 31 January 2026Dundee United 0–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 9 November 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 10 August 2025Dundee United 2–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 6 April 2025Heart of Midlothian 0–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 5 January 2025Dundee United 0–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 1 September 2024Heart of Midlothian 0–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers
Heart of Midlothian
- O. McEntee1 goals
Dundee United
- L. Rose1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.34 for Dundee United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Heart of Midlothian L; Dundee United D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.37 for Dundee United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.48 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee United rate 0.60 and 1.68.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dundee United, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 1.37 for Dundee United. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.68 for Dundee United.