Motherwell vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Motherwell 0-0 Falkirk.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Motherwell, 24% draw, 36% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Motherwell at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motherwell vs Falkirk
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 4J. Knight-LebelD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45E. LongeloD
- 12O. PriestmanM
- 8L. FadingerM
- 77W. VogtM
- 27M. BoothM
- 19I. SaidM
- 18T. MaswanhiseF
- 21Matty ConnellyG
- 31J. McConnellG
- 17R. Charles-CookF
- 22J. KoutroumbisD
- 23E. WilsonD
- 24L. RossM
- 25O. WhyteM
- 11A. LowryM
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 19S. BainG
- 22R. StrainD
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 3L. McCannD
- 16F. BarbrookM
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 47A. DohertyM
- 14F. YeatsM
- 23E. RossM
- 7B. ParkinsonF
- 1N. HogarthG
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 4J. McMillanD
- 9R. MacIverF
- 21D. MelniksM
- 6C. DonaldsonD
- 20C. AllanD
- 11P. McGovernF
- 32K. BennetM
Form going into Motherwell vs Falkirk
Motherwell
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to HJK Helsinki6 August 2026
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
- W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
- W2-0HB Torshavn23 July 2026
Falkirk
All competitions we cover
- L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Motherwell scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Motherwell won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Falkirk
- 2 May 2026Falkirk 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 4 April 2026Motherwell 2–3 FalkirkPremiership
- 3 December 2025Falkirk 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 18 October 2025Motherwell 1–2 FalkirkPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Falkirk
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Falkirk
GoalsAssists
- J. Murrell70
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Motherwell and Falkirk drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Motherwell at 40% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.43.