Motherwell
vs
Falkirk
The model makes it 40% Motherwell, 24% draw, 36% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.72, Falkirk 1.63.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Motherwell
- W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
Falkirk
- L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Falkirk
- 2 May 2026Falkirk 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 4 April 2026Motherwell 2–3 FalkirkPremiership
- 3 December 2025Falkirk 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 18 October 2025Motherwell 1–2 FalkirkPremiership
Leading scorers
Motherwell
- I. Said1 goals
Falkirk
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Motherwell carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.2 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Motherwell W; Falkirk L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Motherwell and 1.63 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Motherwell rate 0.47 in attack and 2.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.53 and 1.94.
That points to 65% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motherwell the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Motherwell against 1.63 for Falkirk. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.94 for Falkirk.