9 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Motherwell vs Falkirk Premiership prediction & result

Fir Park, Motherwell
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Motherwell 0-0 Falkirk.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Motherwell, 24% draw, 36% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Motherwell at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motherwell5%Draw91%Falkirk4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

44'
Finn Yeats
🔁M. Boothout: A. Lowry
46'
46'
🔁F. Yeatsout: C. Sibbald
Martin Moormann
51'
🔁T. Sparrowout: J. Koutroumbis
64'
65'
Ben Krauhaus
🔁M. Moormannout: J. Girdwood-Reich
65'
68'
🔁B. Parkinsonout: R. MacIver
68'
🔁A. Dohertyout: P. McGovern
Lukas Fadinger
75'
🔁W. Vogtout: R. Charles-Cook
76'
🔁E. Longeloout: E. Wilson
76'
90+1'
🔁B. Krauhausout: J. McMillan

Match stats — Motherwell vs Falkirk

58%Possession42%
11Shots10
1On target1
2Corners2
0.89xG0.43

Goals against chances

Motherwell0 from 0.89 xGless than the chances were worth
Falkirk0 from 0.43 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowD
  • 4J. Knight-LebelD
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 45E. LongeloD
  • 12O. PriestmanM
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 77W. VogtM
  • 27M. BoothM
  • 19I. SaidM
  • 18T. MaswanhiseF
Substitutes
  • 21Matty ConnellyG
  • 31J. McConnellG
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
  • 22J. KoutroumbisD
  • 23E. WilsonD
  • 24L. RossM
  • 25O. WhyteM
  • 11A. LowryM
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
Coach: Alfred Johansson
Falkirk 4-2-3-1
  • 19S. BainG
  • 22R. StrainD
  • 15L. NeilsonD
  • 5L. HendersonD
  • 3L. McCannD
  • 16F. BarbrookM
  • 28B. KrauhausM
  • 47A. DohertyM
  • 14F. YeatsM
  • 23E. RossM
  • 7B. ParkinsonF
Substitutes
  • 1N. HogarthG
  • 10C. SibbaldM
  • 4J. McMillanD
  • 9R. MacIverF
  • 21D. MelniksM
  • 6C. DonaldsonD
  • 20C. AllanD
  • 11P. McGovernF
  • 32K. BennetM
Coach: John McGlynn

Form going into Motherwell vs Falkirk

Motherwell

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to HJK Helsinki6 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
  • W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
  • W2-0HB Torshavn23 July 2026

Falkirk

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2St Mirren1 August 2026

What these results say

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Motherwell133461521-613
3Falkirk136342014+621

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Falkirk

  • 2 May 2026Falkirk 1–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 4 April 2026Motherwell 2–3 FalkirkPremiership
  • 3 December 2025Falkirk 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
  • 18 October 2025Motherwell 1–2 FalkirkPremiership

Leading scorers: Motherwell and Falkirk

Motherwell

GoalsAssists

  • A. Lowry31

Falkirk

GoalsAssists

  • J. Murrell70

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Motherwell and Falkirk drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Motherwell at 40% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.89–0.43.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.