Standard Liege
vs
Cercle Brugge
The model makes it 22% Standard Liege, 22% draw, 56% Cercle Brugge — fair odds of 4.55, 4.55 and 1.79. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Standard Liege 1.24, Cercle Brugge 2.05.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Standard Liege vs Cercle Brugge
- 6 December 2025Cercle Brugge 1–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 23 August 2025Standard Liege 0–3 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 1 February 2025Cercle Brugge 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 23 November 2024Standard Liege 1–0 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
- 26 January 2024Cercle Brugge 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 19 August 2023Standard Liege 0–1 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
The two sides
Standard Liege carry a model rating of 6.65 against 7.05 for Cercle Brugge. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Standard Liege and 2.05 for Cercle Brugge. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Standard Liege rate 0.84 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cercle Brugge rate 1.16 and 0.78.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 62% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cercle Brugge the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Standard Liege against 2.05 for Cercle Brugge. Standard Liege's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.16/0.78 for Cercle Brugge.