Kilmarnock
vs
Celtic
The model makes it 53% Kilmarnock, 23% draw, 24% Celtic — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kilmarnock 2.00, Celtic 1.29.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Kilmarnock
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Celtic
- W1-0Dundee3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kilmarnock | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
| 5 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Celtic
- 15 February 2026Kilmarnock 2–3 CelticPremiership
- 9 November 2025Celtic 4–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 14 September 2025Kilmarnock 1–2 CelticPremiership
- 12 April 2025Celtic 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 18 January 2025Celtic 2–1 KilmarnockFA Cup
- 10 November 2024Kilmarnock 0–2 CelticPremiership
Leading scorers
Kilmarnock
- G. Kiltie1 goals
- J. Hugill1 goals
Celtic
- B. Nygren1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kilmarnock carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.5 for Celtic. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Kilmarnock L; Celtic W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.29 for Celtic. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kilmarnock rate 0.76 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celtic rate 0.69 and 1.39.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Celtic, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kilmarnock the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.29 for Celtic. Kilmarnock's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.39 for Celtic.