Kilmarnock vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Kilmarnock 1-5 Celtic.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Kilmarnock, 23% draw, 24% Celtic — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kilmarnock at 53%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. StryjekG
- 2J. BrandonD
- 14G. StangerD
- 15J. YfekoD
- 21M. Schjonning-LarsenD
- 8E. RingM
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 10T. John-JulesF
- 12C. FerrieG
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 20N. ClescencoF
- 27I. OwenF
- 5M. O'Hara
- 22J. Thomson
- 49B. RiceM
- 25E. Schilte-BrownD
- 39E. BowieD
- 1V. SinisaloG
- 2A. JohnstonD
- 20C. Carter-VickersD
- 6A. TrustyD
- 63K. TierneyD
- 42C. McGregorM
- 27A. EngelsM
- 11C. DuranM
- 8B. NygrenM
- 13Yang Hyun-JunM
- 9K. HoghF
- 31R. DoohanG
- 49J. ForrestM
- 17S. TounektiF
- 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
- 41R. HatateM
- 14L. McCowanM
- 47D. MurrayD
- 19C. OsmandF
- 51C. DonovanD
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Celtic
Kilmarnock
All competitions we cover
- L3-4away to St Johnstone2 August 2026
Celtic
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Dundee3 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
| 1 | Celtic | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Celtic
- 15 February 2026Kilmarnock 2–3 CelticPremiership
- 9 November 2025Celtic 4–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 14 September 2025Kilmarnock 1–2 CelticPremiership
- 12 April 2025Celtic 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 18 January 2025Celtic 2–1 KilmarnockFA Cup
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Celtic
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán76
- B. Nygren64
- K. Høgh33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celtic won 5–1 at Kilmarnock. The model had leaned towards a win for Kilmarnock at 53% and given a win for Celtic 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: K. Hogh 2' for Celtic, K. Hogh 33' for Celtic, K. Hogh 35' for Celtic, B. Nygren 47' for Celtic, M. Schjonning-Larsen 56' for Kilmarnock, L. McCowan 75' for Celtic. On expected goals it finished 0.86–5.65.