St Mirren vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Mirren 1-0 St Johnstone.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% St Mirren, 29% draw, 41% St Johnstone — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
St Johnstone at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Mirren vs St Johnstone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jacob ChapmanG
- 2Jayden RichardsonD
- 22Marcus FraserD
- 13Alexander GogićD
- 3Declan JohnD
- 8Ryan CarrM
- 48Paul NsioM
- 10Samuel RamosM
- 88Killian PhillipsM
- 23Chris MochrieM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 4Liam DonnellyM
- 16Luke ThomasM
- 20Jake YoungF
- 7Roland IdowuM
- 27Peter UrminskyG
- 5Richard KingD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 30Fraser TaylorM
- 32Luke DouglasF
- 1Toby StewardG
- 33Liam SmithD
- 5Zach MitchellD
- 3Cheick DiabateD
- 14Matty FouldsD
- 42Reece McAlearM
- 8Jason HoltM
- 11Sam StantonM
- 10Jamie GullanM
- 99Ruari PatonM
- 9Josh FowlerF
- 23Logan ChalmersM
- 18Kai FotheringhamF
- 17Louis LLoydF
- 20Ross SinclairG
- 15Jack BairdD
- 19Danny FinlaysonD
- 4Morgan BoyesD
- 7Taylor StevenF
- 25Macaulay TaitM
Form going into St Mirren vs St Johnstone
St Mirren
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026
St Johnstone
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Kilmarnock2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs St Johnstone
- 1 February 2025St Mirren 0–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 14 December 2024St Johnstone 2–3 St MirrenPremiership
- 30 October 2024St Mirren 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 24 February 2024St Mirren 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 6 December 2023St Johnstone 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and St Johnstone
St Mirren
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
St Mirren beat St Johnstone 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for St Johnstone at 41% and given a win for St Mirren 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: K. Phillips (penalty) 73' for St Mirren. On expected goals it finished 1.35–1.29.