St Mirren
vs
St Johnstone
The model makes it 30% St Mirren, 29% draw, 41% St Johnstone — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: St Mirren 1.09, St Johnstone 1.32.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
St Mirren
- W2-0away to Falkirk1 August 2026
St Johnstone
- W4-3Kilmarnock2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Mirren | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | St Johnstone | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs St Johnstone
- 1 February 2025St Mirren 0–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 14 December 2024St Johnstone 2–3 St MirrenPremiership
- 30 October 2024St Mirren 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 24 February 2024St Mirren 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 6 December 2023St Johnstone 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 28 October 2023St Mirren 4–0 St JohnstonePremiership
Leading scorers
St Mirren
- K. Phillips2 goals
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler1 goals1 assists
- K. Fotheringham1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
St Mirren carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.79 for St Johnstone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): St Mirren W; St Johnstone W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for St Mirren and 1.32 for St Johnstone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Mirren rate 0.55 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Johnstone rate 0.94 and 1.05.
That points to 43% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour St Mirren, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Johnstone the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for St Mirren against 1.32 for St Johnstone. St Mirren's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.05 for St Johnstone.