Doncaster
vs
Burton Albion
League One prediction
Our model says: Doncaster 1–0 Burton Albion
The model makes it 37% Doncaster, 30% draw, 33% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Doncaster 1.35, Burton Albion 1.23.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Doncaster vs Burton Albion
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Doncaster at 37% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Doncaster vs Burton Albion
Doncaster
- W2-0away to Peterborough19 September 2026
- L0-1away to AFC Wimbledon12 September 2026
- L2-3Plymouth5 September 2026
- D1-1Notts County1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stevenage29 August 2026
Burton Albion
- D2-2Mansfield Town19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Oxford United12 September 2026
- D2-2Cambridge United5 September 2026
- W4-1AFC Wimbledon2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Notts County29 August 2026
What these results say
- Doncaster failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Doncaster scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Doncaster conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Burton Albion conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Burton Albion had three goals or more.
- Burton Albion failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Burton Albion | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Doncaster carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.24 for Burton Albion. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Doncaster and 1.23 for Burton Albion. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Doncaster rate 0.48 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Burton Albion rate 0.55 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Burton Albion, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Doncaster a 0.2% chance of the title and Burton Albion 1.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Doncaster the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Doncaster against 1.23 for Burton Albion. Doncaster's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.85 for Burton Albion.