10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Doncaster vs Burton Albion League One prediction & result

Eco-Power Stadium, Doncaster
Referee: Blair Harrison
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Doncaster 1-0 Burton Albion.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Doncaster, 28% draw, 33% Burton Albion — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Doncaster at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Doncaster96%Draw4%Burton Albion0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Jordan Thomasout: T. Nixon
12'
39'
Matthew Dennis
Owen Bailey
41'
⚽Leon Ayindeassist: Alfie May
45+2'
45'
🔁Will Collarout: Toby Sibbick
Robbie Gotts
70'
71'
🔁Matthew Dennisout: Gbemi Arubi
71'
🔁Charlie Websterout: Kain Adom
🔁Brandon Hanlanout: Isaac Hutchinson
74'
🔁Leon Ayindeout: Hakeeb Adelakun
80'
80'
🔁Jack Armerout: H. Araujo
84'
H. Araujo
Hakeeb Adelakun
89'

Match stats — Doncaster vs Burton Albion

43%Possession57%
15Shots20
1On target5
3Corners12
0.66xG0.97

Goals against chances

Doncaster1 from 0.66 xGabout what the chances were worth
Burton Albion0 from 0.97 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Doncaster 3-4-1-2
  • 1Tommy SimkinG
  • 27S. GrehanD
  • 12N. ByrneD
  • 6J. McGrathD
  • 11L. AyindeM
  • 22R. GottsM
  • 8G. BroadbentM
  • 19J. ThomasM
  • 4O. BaileyM
  • 10A. MayF
  • 9B. HanlanF
Substitutes
  • 20D. RobinsonM
  • 47H. AdelakunF
  • 42J. ClarkeG
  • 15H. CliftonM
  • 50Dylan Hartley
  • 21I. HutchinsonM
  • 16T. NixonD
Coach: G. McCann
Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
  • 34C. AddaiG
  • 26F. DelapD
  • 12G. EvansD
  • 16C. TiltD
  • 17R. Borges RodriguesM
  • 14W. CollarM
  • 4K. ChaukeM
  • 3J. ArmerM
  • 18Caylon VickersM
  • 8C. WebsterM
  • 19M. DennisF
Substitutes
  • 9G. ArubiF
  • 24Harvey AraujoD
  • 29Kain AdomF
  • 32J. KeanG
  • 41Sulyman KruballyM
  • 6T. SibbickD
  • 20J. SrahaD
Coach: G. Bowyer

Form going into Doncaster vs Burton Albion

Doncaster

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to Luton3 October 2026

Burton Albion

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3Huddersfield3 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Plymouth26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Doncaster133371422-812
15Burton Albion144551821-317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Doncaster vs Burton Albion

  • 3 February 2026Burton Albion 1–2 DoncasterLeague One
  • 4 October 2025Doncaster 1–1 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 7 November 2023Doncaster 2–1 Burton AlbionEFL Trophy
  • 23 April 2022Doncaster 2–0 Burton AlbionLeague One
  • 27 November 2021Burton Albion 2–0 DoncasterLeague One

The result against the call

Doncaster beat Burton Albion 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Doncaster at 39%. The goal: Leon Ayinde 45+2' for Doncaster. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.97.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Doncaster a 24.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.4% after a win, 23.5% after a draw, 28.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.4%, 4.6 points lower than before the match.

For Burton Albion the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.4% going in: 3.9% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 7.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.7%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Doncaster v Burton Albion has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 39% / 28% / 33%: the biggest move is Doncaster's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Doncaster win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. Burton Albion win33%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.