10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Leicester vs Peterborough League One prediction & result

King Power Stadium, Leicester
Referee: Simon Hooper
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Leicester 1-3 Peterborough.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Leicester, 24% draw, 18% Peterborough — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Leicester at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
⚽Owura Edwardsassist: Harley Mills
36'
⚽Harry Leonardassist: Bolu Shofowoke
44'
⚽Warren O'Hora (OG)
🔁Liam Cullenout: Wes Burns
45'
🔁Warren O'Horaout: Ilari Kangasniemi
45'
🔁Olabade Alukoout: K. Doyle
45'
59'
🔁Ethan Williamsout: Matthew Garbett
🔁Bobby Reidout: Samuel Charles Braybrooke
65'
67'
🔁Harry Ashfieldout: B. Woods
67'
🔁Bolu Shofowokeout: Vernon Masara
⚽Emil Riis Jakobsenassist: Wes Burns
68'
78'
🔁Liam Kellyout: Brandon·Singh Khela
78'
🔁Harry Leonardout: D. Ormerod
🔁Caleb Okoliout: Harry Howell
78'
85'
Matthew Garbett

Match stats — Leicester vs Peterborough

70%Possession30%
20Shots13
4On target4
8Corners8
2.47xG1.53

Goals against chances

Leicester1 from 2.47 xGless than the chances were worth
Peterborough3 from 1.53 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Leicester 4-2-3-1
  • 29A. McCarthyG
  • 32O. AlukoD
  • 5C. OkoliD
  • 16W. O'HoraD
  • 33L. ThomasD
  • 6J. LundstramM
  • 25L. PageM
  • 11L. CullenM
  • 14B. De Cordova-ReidM
  • 37W. AlvesM
  • 17E. RiisF
Substitutes
  • 36S. BraybrookeM
  • 7W. BurnsF
  • 27K. DoyleM
  • 20H. HowellF
  • 24I. KangasniemiD
  • 21F. RavizzoliG
  • 15H. SouttarD
Coach: Russell Martin
Peterborough 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. BassG
  • 2C. JohnstonD
  • 18Lucca MendonçaD
  • 12Joshua FeeneyD
  • 14Harley MillsD
  • 4L. KellyM
  • 45Harry AshfieldM
  • 19Bolu ShofowokeM
  • 10Ethan WilliamsM
  • 11O. EdwardsM
  • 9H. LeonardF
Substitutes
  • 16B. WoodsM
  • 26D. OkagbueD
  • 8B. KhelaM
  • 28M. GarbettM
  • 27D. OrmerodF
  • 17Vernon MasaraF
  • 23C. Andeng NdiG
Coach: Robbie Savage

Form going into Leicester vs Peterborough

Leicester

No earlier matches on record this season.

Peterborough

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Stockport County26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Leicester135442219+319
22Peterborough132471123-1210

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Leicester vs Peterborough

  • 27 January 2018Peterborough 1–5 LeicesterFA Cup
  • 9 February 2013Peterborough 2–1 LeicesterChampionship
  • 18 August 2012Leicester 2–0 PeterboroughChampionship
  • 31 March 2012Peterborough 1–0 LeicesterChampionship
  • 10 December 2011Leicester 1–1 PeterboroughChampionship

Leading scorers: Leicester and Peterborough

Leicester

GoalsAssists

  • E. Riis61

Peterborough

No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Peterborough won 3–1 at Leicester. The model had leaned towards a win for Leicester at 58% and given a win for Peterborough 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Owura Edwards 12' for Peterborough, Harry Leonard 36' for Peterborough, Warren O'Hora (own goal) 44' for Peterborough, Emil Riis Jakobsen 68' for Leicester. On expected goals it finished 2.47–1.53.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Leicester a 40.1% chance to finish in the top four: 42.7% after a win, 37.2% after a draw, 31.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.4%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.

For Peterborough the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 41.0% going in: 32.3% after a win, 40.8% after a draw, 42.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.3%, 8.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Leicester v Peterborough has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 53% / 26% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 58% / 24% / 18%: the biggest move is Leicester's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Leicester win58%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Peterborough win18%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.