Leicester
vs
Peterborough
League One prediction
Our model says: Leicester 2–0 Peterborough
The model makes it 53% Leicester, 26% draw, 21% Peterborough — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Leicester 2.07, Peterborough 0.89.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Leicester vs Peterborough
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Leicester at 53% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Leicester vs Peterborough
Leicester
- D1-1away to Barnsley19 September 2026
- W4-3away to Stockport County12 September 2026
- L0-4Oxford United5 September 2026
- W2-0Plymouth1 September 2026
- D0-0away to Milton Keynes Dons29 August 2026
Peterborough
- L0-2Doncaster19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Milton Keynes Dons12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday5 September 2026
- D0-0Stevenage1 September 2026
- L0-4away to Blackpool29 August 2026
What these results say
- Peterborough did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Peterborough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Leicester carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.12 for Peterborough. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.07 goals for Leicester and 0.89 for Peterborough. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Leicester rate 0.66 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Peterborough rate 0.48 and 2.06.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Leicester a 1.2% chance of the title and Peterborough 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leicester the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Leicester against 0.89 for Peterborough. Leicester's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.06 for Peterborough.