Mansfield Town vs Bromley League One prediction & result
Final score: Mansfield Town 2-1 Bromley.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Mansfield Town, 22% draw, 19% Bromley — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Mansfield Town at 59%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mansfield Town vs Bromley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. RobertsG
- 4E. HewittD
- 23A. OshilajaD
- 5R. SweeneyD
- 25L. ReedM
- 22N. Moriah-WelshM
- 13J. RussellM
- 16L. ThompsonM
- 3S. McLaughlinM
- 18R. OatesF
- 14M. SmithF
- 33G. AbbottM
- 20F. Blake-TracyD
- 8L. BoltonD
- 24R. HendryM
- 2K. KnoyleD
- 10G. MarisM
- 19T. RobertsF
- 31O. MasonG
- 12Marcus Lemar IfillD
- 5O. SowunmiD
- 21Kamari Antonio GrantD
- 17J. MendyD
- 6G. SavilleM
- 18C. WhitelyM
- 22K. ContehM
- 28J. McKiernanM
- 11M. PinnockM
- 20V. AdeboyejoF
- 9M. CheekF
- 16W. HondermarckM
- 45A. JacksonD
- 10J. JonesF
- 14N. KabambaF
- 19M. MillerF
- 1G. SmithG
Form going into Mansfield Town vs Bromley
Mansfield Town
No earlier matches on record this season.
Bromley
All competitions we cover
- L1-4away to Milton Keynes Dons26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 19 |
| 24 | Bromley | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 33 | -20 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Bromley
Mansfield Town
GoalsAssists
- M. Smith62
Bromley
No player in League One's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mansfield Town beat Bromley 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Mansfield Town at 59%. The goals: Stephen McLaughlin 22' for Mansfield Town, John Joshua Mckiernan 30' for Bromley, Nathan Daniel Moriah-Welsh 49' for Mansfield Town. On expected goals it finished 2.42–0.95.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mansfield Town a 10.3% chance to finish in the top four: 11.6% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 5.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.6%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
For Bromley the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 60.0% going in: 51.3% after a win, 60.3% after a draw, 62.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.6%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our League One season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Mansfield Town v Bromley has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 53% / 25% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is Mansfield Town's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Mansfield Town win59%▲ +6
- Draw22%▼ −3
- Bromley win19%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.