Mansfield Town
vs
Bromley
League One prediction
Our model says: Mansfield Town 2–1 Bromley
The model makes it 53% Mansfield Town, 25% draw, 22% Bromley — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Mansfield Town 2.34, Bromley 1.08.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mansfield Town vs Bromley
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mansfield Town at 53% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 675 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mansfield Town vs Bromley
Mansfield Town
- D2-2away to Burton Albion19 September 2026
- D0-0Huddersfield12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bradford5 September 2026
- L0-5away to Reading2 September 2026
- W5-2Luton30 August 2026
Bromley
- W2-1Huddersfield19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Blackpool12 September 2026
- L0-2AFC Wimbledon7 September 2026
- L0-5Leyton Orient1 September 2026
- L2-7away to Sheffield Wednesday29 August 2026
What these results say
- Mansfield Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Mansfield Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bromley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bromley failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bromley had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Mansfield Town and Bromley
Mansfield Town
No player in League One's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Bromley
- V. Adeboyejo4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Mansfield Town carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.02 for Bromley. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.34 goals for Mansfield Town and 1.08 for Bromley. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mansfield Town rate 0.57 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bromley rate 0.50 and 2.69.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mansfield Town the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Mansfield Town against 1.08 for Bromley. Mansfield Town's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.69 for Bromley.