22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 NK Varazdin.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dinamo Zagreb, 26% draw, 33% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb96%Draw4%NK Varazdin0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
⚽M. Mladenovskiassist: I. Canjuga
Miha Zajc
45'
45+1'
Novak Tepšić
🔁P. Tabinasout: M. Valincic
56'
🔁B. Godaout: M. Perez Vinlof
56'
⚽D. Beljo
57'
60'
🔁M. Marinaout: T. Duvnjak
60'
🔁I. Mamutout: M. Vuk
⚽N. Galesicassist: D. Beljo
68'
72'
Frane Maglica
72'
🔁L. Mamicout: D. Puclin
72'
🔁I. Tavaresout: E. Uchegbu
🔁M. Zajcout: R. Mudrazija
73'
🔁A. Hoxhaout: M. Orsic
73'
80'
🔁A. Latkovicout: S. Juric
🔁M. Lisicaout: F. Topic
81'
Josip Mišić
82'
⚽R. Mudrazijaassist: D. Beljo
90'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

59%Possession41%
21Shots6
11On target1
5Corners2
2.1xG0.42

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb3 from 2.10 xGmore than the chances were worth
NK Varazdin1 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 33I. NevisticG
  • 13P. TabinasD
  • 15N. GalesicD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 11A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 20R. MudrazijaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 77N. NsokiM
  • 41S. SuntaM
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilicG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 16N. TepsicD
  • 20G. SikosekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 10A. LatkovicM
  • 22L. MamicM
  • 38I. TavaresM
  • 17I. MamutF
Substitutes
  • 1O. ZelenikaG
  • 12P. BockajD
  • 4L. SkaricicD
  • 5S. LesjakD
  • 3E. DurakovicD
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
  • 6D. PuclinM
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
Coach: Nikola Safaric

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

Dinamo Zagreb

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Viking18 August 2026
  • W4-0Rudes14 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Kauno Žalgiris11 August 2026
  • W5-0Kauno Žalgiris4 August 2026
  • W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026

NK Varazdin

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026
  • W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
  • W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
  • L0-2away to FK Jablonec30 July 2026
  • W3-2FK Jablonec23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Dinamo Zagreb went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • NK Varazdin won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • NK Varazdin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • NK Varazdin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325
5NK Varazdin135441714+319

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Varazdin

  • 26 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 22 February 2026NK Varazdin 0–4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 22 November 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 30 August 2025NK Varazdin 2–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 25 May 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and NK Varazdin

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić60
  • I. Canjuga33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Zagreb beat NK Varazdin 3–1. The model had made a win for Dinamo Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. Mladenovski 28' for NK Varazdin, D. Beljo 57' for Dinamo Zagreb, N. Galesic 68' for Dinamo Zagreb, R. Mudrazija 90' for Dinamo Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 2.10–0.42.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.