Dinamo Zagreb
vs
NK Varazdin
HNL prediction
The model makes it 51% Dinamo Zagreb, 27% draw, 22% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 1.49, NK Varazdin 0.89.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dinamo Zagreb
- W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
NK Varazdin
- W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo2 goals
NK Varazdin
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.54 for NK Varazdin. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dinamo Zagreb W; NK Varazdin W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.89 for NK Varazdin. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.71 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Varazdin rate 0.57 and 1.11.
That points to 42% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 0.89 for NK Varazdin. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.11 for NK Varazdin.