NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 2-0 HNK Gorica.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% NK Slaven Belupo, 26% draw, 31% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
NK Slaven Belupo at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30K. SenticG
- 18F. KruseljD
- 4D. KovacicD
- 5I. Cvetko
- 33K. IsasegiD
- 88D. BosakM
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 11J. MitrovicM
- 24L. BosnjakM
- 8L. BanovecM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 32I. CovicG
- 12M. PavliG
- 6T. BozicD
- 13A. BilobrkD
- 23A. JonssonM
- 22A. Adeshina
- 16L. GeciM
- 27A. GrgicF
- 7M. DabroF
- 71D. MatijasG
- 45S. PericD
- 32J. FilipovicD
- 34I. CvijanovicD
- 2F. BrautM
- 66J. FriganM
- 36A. KaveljM
- 25B. BogojevicM
- 8J. PranjicF
- 24D. PavicicF
- 9P. MijicF
- 30D. ZarkovG
- 1R. JosipovicG
- 15D. StevanovicD
- 4K. CustovicM
- 7O. BakicM
- 14S. KucisM
- 67T. PrgometM
- 99M. GashiF
- 18B. KardumF
Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
NK Slaven Belupo
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026
- L1-4NK Varazdin9 August 2026
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
HNK Gorica
All competitions we cover
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica
- 10 May 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 7 March 2026HNK Gorica 2–2 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 5 December 2025NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 21 September 2025HNK Gorica 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 18 May 2025NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and HNK Gorica
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Slaven Belupo beat HNK Gorica 2–0. The model had made a win for NK Slaven Belupo its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Mitrovic 18' for NK Slaven Belupo, I. Nestorovski 21' for NK Slaven Belupo. On expected goals it finished 1.07–0.93.