NK Slaven Belupo
vs
HNK Gorica
HNL prediction
The model makes it 46% NK Slaven Belupo, 25% draw, 29% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Slaven Belupo 1.67, HNK Gorica 1.29.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
NK Slaven Belupo
- L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026
HNK Gorica
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Slaven Belupo carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.27 for HNK Gorica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): NK Slaven Belupo L; HNK Gorica L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.29 for HNK Gorica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.54 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Gorica rate 0.51 and 1.64.
That points to 57% for over two and a half goals and 59% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Slaven Belupo the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for NK Slaven Belupo against 1.29 for HNK Gorica. NK Slaven Belupo's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.64 for HNK Gorica.