Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result
Final score: Rudes 4-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Rudes, 22% draw, 52% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95L. RogicG
- 14B. Unusic
- 4V. CeljakD
- 5M. StolnikD
- 2T. KolegaD
- 28XaviM
- 15N. SkokoM
- 24I. DjoricM
- 20J. BlagaicM
- 11J. PoldrugacF
- 7L. IlecicF
- 1F. HoljevacG
- 32S. DuvnjakG
- 23A. UdovicicD
- 8L. PopovicM
- 13J. RadmanM
- 10V. SeitzM
- 25A. SpekuljukF
- 34K. LovricF
- 35J. BralicF
- 12J. PosavecG
- 23M. VesovicD
- 27N. GodecD
- 4A. TriantafyllouD
- 20K. CabrajicD
- 9L. BelcarM
- 10M. SuboticM
- 7D. VukovicM
- 29J. VasiljM
- 15D. ThaqiM
- 28N. DjurkovicF
- 32L. SavatovicG
- 5T. JukicD
- 25P. SmiljanicM
- 14M. LorberM
- 6F. FetaiM
- 30D. ReicM
- 26D. Morina
- 16KaykeF
- 24M. MaricF
Form going into Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rudes
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026
- L1-6NK Osijek8 August 2026
- L1-2away to HNK Rijeka2 August 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026
- W3-1HNK Gorica8 August 2026
- W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rudes | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
| 9 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rudes vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 18 May 2024Rudes 3–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 9 March 2024NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 RudesHNL
- 3 December 2023Rudes 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 15 September 2023NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 RudesHNL
- 20 April 2019Rudes 1–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 15 February 2019NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–0 RudesHNL
Leading scorers: Rudes and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Rudes
No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rudes beat NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 52% and given a win for Rudes 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Skoko 28' for Rudes, D. Vukovic 40' for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, Xavi 53' for Rudes, J. Bralic 58' for Rudes, I. Djoric 65' for Rudes. Sent off: Leon Belcar (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb) 23'. On expected goals it finished 1.69–1.03.