Genoa vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Genoa 0-2 Napoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Genoa, 24% draw, 50% Napoli — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genoa vs Napoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BijlowG
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 5L. OstigardD
- 22J. VasquezD
- 15B. Norton-CuffyM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 4AmorimM
- 77M. E. EllertssonM
- 8T. BaldanziF
- 9VitinhaF
- 29L. ColomboF
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 99F. StolzG
- 74M. Doucoure
- 20S. SabelliD
- 3A. MartinD
- 2M. MitajD
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 34S. OtoaD
- 97D. SowM
- 1A. MeretG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 13A. RrahmaniD
- 16R. MarinD
- 37L. SpinazzolaD
- 99F. AnguissaM
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 19R. HojlundF
- 27Alisson SantosF
- 32V. Milinkovic-SavicG
- 14N. ContiniG
- 17M. OliveraD
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 47C. GarofaloD
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 26A. VergaraM
- 6B. GilmourM
- 2C. FavasuliD
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Napoli
- 7 February 2026Genoa 2–3 NapoliSerie A
- 5 October 2025Napoli 2–1 GenoaSerie A
- 11 May 2025Napoli 2–2 GenoaSerie A
- 21 December 2024Genoa 1–2 NapoliSerie A
- 17 February 2024Napoli 1–1 GenoaSerie A
Leading scorers: Genoa and Napoli
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić41
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Napoli won 2–0 at Genoa. The model had made a win for Napoli its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: K. De Bruyne 82' for Napoli, A. Vergara 87' for Napoli. On expected goals it finished 0.58–0.10.