Genoa
vs
Napoli
Serie A prediction
The model makes it 26% Genoa, 24% draw, 50% Napoli — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Genoa 1.24, Napoli 1.80.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Napoli
- 7 February 2026Genoa 2–3 NapoliSerie A
- 5 October 2025Napoli 2–1 GenoaSerie A
- 11 May 2025Napoli 2–2 GenoaSerie A
- 21 December 2024Genoa 1–2 NapoliSerie A
- 17 February 2024Napoli 1–1 GenoaSerie A
- 16 September 2023Genoa 2–2 NapoliSerie A
The two sides
Genoa carry a model rating of 6.68 against 7.01 for Napoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Genoa and 1.80 for Napoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Genoa rate 0.76 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Napoli rate 1.19 and 0.86.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 60% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Genoa against 1.8 for Napoli. Genoa's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.19/0.86 for Napoli.