Qingdao Youth Island
vs
Shandong Luneng
Super League prediction
The model makes it 41% Qingdao Youth Island, 30% draw, 29% Shandong Luneng — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Qingdao Youth Island 1.25, Shandong Luneng 0.99.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Qingdao Youth Island
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
- W2-0Qingdao Jonoon2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Shenyang Urban25 July 2026
- D1-1Chengdu Better City17 July 2026
- L0-3away to Sichuan Jiuniu11 July 2026
Shandong Luneng
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
- W1-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG1 August 2026
- L1-2Henan Jianye26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Dalian Zhixing18 July 2026
- W4-3Yunnan Yukun10 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Qingdao Youth Island | 22 | 7 | 11 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 32 |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Qingdao Youth Island
No league goals recorded yet.
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan12 goals5 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Qingdao Youth Island carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.3 for Shandong Luneng. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Qingdao Youth Island L-D-W-W-D; Shandong Luneng W-L-L-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Qingdao Youth Island and 0.99 for Shandong Luneng. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.38 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shandong Luneng rate 0.58 and 1.74.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Qingdao Youth Island a 0.1% chance of the title and Shandong Luneng 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Qingdao Youth Island the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Qingdao Youth Island against 0.99 for Shandong Luneng. Qingdao Youth Island's attack/defence rating is 0.38/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.74 for Shandong Luneng.