Brondby
vs
FC Copenhagen
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Brondby 0–1 FC Copenhagen
The model makes it 31% Brondby, 30% draw, 39% FC Copenhagen — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Brondby 1.11, FC Copenhagen 1.38.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Brondby vs FC Copenhagen
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Brondby wins, grey are draws, red are FC Copenhagen wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Copenhagen at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Brondby vs FC Copenhagen
Brondby
- L1-4away to FC Midtjylland14 September 2026
- L0-3Randers FC6 September 2026
- L1-3away to FC Nordsjaelland30 August 2026
- W3-1Silkeborg24 August 2026
- W3-2Sonderjyske17 August 2026
FC Copenhagen
- W2-0AC Horsens11 September 2026
- W5-0away to Odense6 September 2026
- W2-0FC Nordsjaelland3 September 2026
- W3-1Sonderjyske31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Viborg23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Brondby | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 13 |
| 1 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 8 | +14 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brondby vs FC Copenhagen
- 21 May 2026Brondby 1–3 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 23 November 2025FC Copenhagen 1–0 BrondbySuperliga
- 13 September 2025Brondby 2–1 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 4 May 2025Brondby 0–3 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
- 13 April 2025FC Copenhagen 1–2 BrondbySuperliga
- 27 October 2024Brondby 0–0 FC CopenhagenSuperliga
Leading scorers: Brondby and FC Copenhagen
Brondby
- M. Frøkjær-Jensen2 goals1 assists
FC Copenhagen
- M. Elyounoussi6 goals2 assists
- B. Meling4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Brondby carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.7 for FC Copenhagen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Brondby and 1.38 for FC Copenhagen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brondby rate 0.65 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Copenhagen rate 0.77 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brondby a 0.6% chance of the title and FC Copenhagen 64.9%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Copenhagen the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Brondby against 1.38 for FC Copenhagen. Brondby's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.05 for FC Copenhagen.