5 September 2026, 16:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 HNK Gorica.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Dinamo Zagreb, 28% draw, 22% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 50% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb97%Draw3%HNK Gorica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
🔁S. Kucisout: J. Frigan
18'
Patrik Mijić
25'
🔁S. Pericout: F. Braut
⚽D. Beljo
28'
46'
🔁K. Custovicout: D. Pavicic
Kirill Kravtsov
49'
Matteo Pérez Vinlöf
64'
🔁A. Hoxhaout: M. Orsic
64'
🔁M. Zajcout: L. Kacavenda
65'
🔁L. Stojkovicout: L. Ivanusec
71'
71'
🔁J. Pranjicout: F. Brodic
71'
🔁T. Lacouxout: L. Vrzic
79'
Dušan Stevanović
🔁D. Beljoout: N. Galesic
81'
🔁M. Lisicaout: S. Prevljak
81'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

67%Possession33%
15Shots9
7On target2
6Corners2
1.7xG0.79

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
HNK Gorica0 from 0.79 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 10L. StojkovicM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 11A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 44I. FilipovicG
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 15N. GalesicD
  • 13P. Tabinas
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 17L. IvanusecM
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 23I. AlmenaF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. JosipovicG
  • 45S. PericD
  • 32J. FilipovicD
  • 15D. StevanovicD
  • 34I. CvijanovicD
  • 14S. KucisM
  • 6T. LacouxM
  • 4K. CustovicM
  • 8J. PranjicM
  • 25B. BogojevicM
  • 9P. MijicF
Substitutes
  • 30D. ZarkovG
  • 71D. MatijasG
  • 2F. BrautD
  • 24D. PavicicM
  • 7O. BakicM
  • 66J. FriganM
  • 99M. GashiF
  • 18B. KardumF
  • 10F. BrodicF
Coach: Mario Carevic

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D2-2away to Istra 196129 August 2026
  • W3-1NK Varazdin22 August 2026

HNK Gorica

  • D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
  • L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Dinamo Zagreb7511179+816
9HNK Gorica8125512-75

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

  • 2 May 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 8 April 2026HNK Gorica 3–6 Dinamo ZagrebCup
  • 1 March 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–2 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 1 December 2025HNK Gorica 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 14 September 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–2 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 23 April 2025HNK Gorica 1–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and HNK Gorica

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D. Beljo9 goals3 assists

HNK Gorica

  • B. Bogojević3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.