Dinamo Zagreb
vs
HNK Gorica
HNL prediction
The model makes it 70% Dinamo Zagreb, 19% draw, 11% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Zagreb 2.17, HNK Gorica 0.73.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dinamo Zagreb
- W4-0Rudes14 August 2026
- W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
HNK Gorica
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
- L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 6 |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
- 2 May 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 8 April 2026HNK Gorica 3–6 Dinamo ZagrebCup
- 1 March 2026Dinamo Zagreb 4–2 HNK GoricaHNL
- 1 December 2025HNK Gorica 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 14 September 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–2 HNK GoricaHNL
- 23 April 2025HNK Gorica 1–0 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo4 goals
HNK Gorica
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Dinamo Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.2 for HNK Gorica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dinamo Zagreb W-W; HNK Gorica L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.73 for HNK Gorica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.68 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Gorica rate 0.45 and 1.69.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 46% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Dinamo Zagreb against 0.73 for HNK Gorica. Dinamo Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.69 for HNK Gorica.