Aarhus
vs
Silkeborg
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 63% Aarhus, 22% draw, 15% Silkeborg — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Aarhus 2.03, Silkeborg 0.91.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Aarhus
- L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
- D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
Silkeborg
- L0-1away to FC Nordsjaelland16 August 2026
- W1-0Odense10 August 2026
- L1-3FC Copenhagen2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Randers FC27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 7 | Silkeborg | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Silkeborg
- 21 November 2025Silkeborg 0–2 AarhusSuperliga
- 5 October 2025Aarhus 3–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 1 December 2024Silkeborg 1–1 AarhusSuperliga
- 15 September 2024Aarhus 1–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 16 May 2024Aarhus 0–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 9 May 2024Silkeborg 1–0 AarhusDBU Pokalen
Leading scorers
Aarhus
- Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad2 goals
Silkeborg
- O. Ross2 goals1 assists
- C. McCowatt1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Aarhus carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.4 for Silkeborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Aarhus D-D-L; Silkeborg D-L-W-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Aarhus and 0.91 for Silkeborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus rate 0.78 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Silkeborg rate 0.55 and 1.38.
That points to 56% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Silkeborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Aarhus against 0.91 for Silkeborg. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.78/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.38 for Silkeborg.