5 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Full time4 – 1

Final score: HNK Rijeka 4-1 NK Osijek.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% HNK Rijeka, 29% draw, 29% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Rijeka at 42% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Rijeka99%Draw1%NK Osijek0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Jona Ježić
15'
⚽A. Leonassist: A. Ljatifi
⚽S. Vignatoassist: D. Adu Adjei
21'
⚽D. Adu Adjeiassist: T. Fruk
33'
⚽D. Adu Adjeiassist: T. Fruk
43'
45+2'
Domagoj Bukvić
46'
🔁S. Mustaficout: L. Posavec
46'
🔁M. Heisterout: D. Kalem
46'
🔁J. Jezicout: S. Mikolcic
58'
🔁I. Kolarikout: I. Jezic
⚽T. Frukassist: S. Vignato
61'
65'
🔁I. Dolcekout: I. Baric
🔁S. Vignatoout: A. Gojak
69'
🔁T. Frukout: A. Juric
79'
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: M. Mohebi
80'
🔁T. Dantasout: A. Barco
85'
🔁I. Cubelicout: G. Grulovic
85'

Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek

49%Possession51%
24Shots9
14On target3
8Corners3
2.66xG0.35

Goals against chances

HNK Rijeka4 from 2.66 xGmore than the chances were worth
NK Osijek1 from 0.35 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 91N. BodeticD
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 9M. MohebiM
  • 21J. PuljicF
Coach: Matjaz Kek
NK Osijek 4-1-4-1
  • 31M. MalenicaG
  • 77S. MustaficD
  • 49I. KolarikD
  • 26L. JelenicD
  • 2M. HeisterD
  • 23L. VrbancicM
  • 7I. DolcekM
  • 48J. JezicM
  • 39D. BukvicM
  • 30A. LjatifiM
  • 79A. LeonF
Substitutes
  • 1N. CurcijaG
  • 24L. PosavecD
  • 47D. KalemD
  • 98I. JezicD
  • 8S. MikolcicM
  • 67B. BaktiM
  • 13V. CaicM
  • 46I. BaricF
  • 16O. PetrusenkoM
Coach: Federico Bessone Luna

Form going into HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek

HNK Rijeka

  • D0-0away to HNK Gorica31 August 2026
  • W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026

NK Osijek

  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
  • L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5HNK Rijeka7421137+614
3NK Osijek85121711+616

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek

  • 12 April 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
  • 1 February 2026NK Osijek 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 27 October 2025HNK Rijeka 4–2 NK OsijekHNL
  • 9 August 2025NK Osijek 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 23 April 2025HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
  • 16 February 2025NK Osijek 0–2 HNK RijekaHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and NK Osijek

HNK Rijeka

  • D. Adu-Adjei4 goals3 assists
  • T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
  • Tiago Dantas2 goals2 assists

NK Osijek

  • A. León5 goals1 assist
  • N. Omerović5 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.