HNK Rijeka
vs
NK Osijek
HNL prediction
The model makes it 47% HNK Rijeka, 27% draw, 26% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HNK Rijeka 1.46, NK Osijek 1.02.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
HNK Rijeka
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026
- W2-1Rudes2 August 2026
NK Osijek
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
- W6-1away to Rudes8 August 2026
- W2-0away to HNK Gorica1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | HNK Rijeka | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 1 | NK Osijek | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek
- 12 April 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
- 1 February 2026NK Osijek 1–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 27 October 2025HNK Rijeka 4–2 NK OsijekHNL
- 9 August 2025NK Osijek 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 23 April 2025HNK Rijeka 0–2 NK OsijekHNL
- 16 February 2025NK Osijek 0–2 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers
HNK Rijeka
No league goals recorded yet.
NK Osijek
- N. Omerović4 goals
- A. Jakupovic2 goals
- A. León2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Rijeka carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.52 for NK Osijek. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): HNK Rijeka W-L; NK Osijek W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for HNK Rijeka and 1.02 for NK Osijek. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Rijeka rate 0.60 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Osijek rate 0.66 and 1.29.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 50% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Osijek, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for HNK Rijeka against 1.02 for NK Osijek. HNK Rijeka's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.29 for NK Osijek.