6 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas, Koprivnica
Full time2 – 1

Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 2-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% NK Slaven Belupo, 28% draw, 31% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Slaven Belupo at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Slaven Belupo96%Draw4%NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Adetunji Rasaq Adeshina
7'
Ilija Nestorovski
7'
14'
Morina Dardan
46'
🔁D. Morinaout: J. Vasilj
46'
🔁M. Maricout: M. Antunovic
⚽D. Kovacicassist: J. Mitrovic
48'
⚽I. Nestorovskiassist: M. Dabro
53'
66'
🔁I. Katicout: P. Smiljanic
68'
🔁M. Vesovicout: D. Thaqi
70'
Fran Karačić
81'
🔁M. Suboticout: N. Djurkovic
🔁M. Dabroout: D. Bosak
82'
87'
⚽N. Djurkovic
Tomislav Božić
90+4'
Ljuban Crepulja
90+1'
90+4'
Marijan Čabraja
🔁J. Mitrovicout: L. Crepulja
90'

Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

44%Possession56%
17Shots12
5On target3
5Corners5
1.37xG1.95

Goals against chances

NK Slaven Belupo2 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 from 1.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
  • 30K. SenticG
  • 27A. GrgicD
  • 6T. BozicD
  • 4D. KovacicD
  • 33K. IsasegiD
  • 22A. AdeshinaM
  • 17F. MazarM
  • 7M. DabroM
  • 24L. BosnjakM
  • 11J. MitrovicM
  • 90I. NestorovskiF
Substitutes
  • 32I. CovicG
  • 5I. CvetkoD
  • 13A. BilobrkD
  • 77I. UrataD
  • 21L. CrepuljaM
  • 88D. BosakM
  • 23A. JonssonM
  • 26L. LoncaricM
  • 14L. RatshukuduF
Coach: Mario Gregurina
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 13F. KaracicD
  • 4A. TriantafyllouD
  • 5M. CabrajaD
  • 20K. CabrajicD
  • 26D. Morina
  • 10M. SuboticM
  • 8I. KaticM
  • 23M. VesovicM
  • 24M. MaricF
  • 7D. VukovicM
Substitutes
  • 32L. SavatovicG
  • 2J. GurlicaM
  • 21T. KralevskiD
  • 27N. GodecD
  • 29J. VasiljM
  • 25P. SmiljanicM
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 30D. ReicM
  • 16KaykeF
Coach: Nikica Jelavic

Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Slaven Belupo

  • L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Rudes21 August 2026
  • L0-1away to NK Osijek15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8NK Slaven Belupo7205514-96
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7214913-47

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • 6 September 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 21 April 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 10 March 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebCup
  • 13 February 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 16 January 2026NK Slaven Belupo 2–4 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 November 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL

Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

NK Slaven Belupo

  • I. Nestorovski3 goals

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • D. Vuković2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.