Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu Super League prediction & result
Final score: Shandong Luneng 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Shandong Luneng, 32% draw, 31% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shandong Luneng at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Line-ups
- 1Yu JinyongG
- 33Gao ZhunyiD
- 23P. AlvaroD
- 11Liu YangD
- 28Mijit MewlanM
- 22Y. LiM
- 8Guilherme MadrugaM
- 29Chen PuM
- 7Xie WennengF
- 9CryzanF
- 10V. QazaishviliF
- 14Wang DaleiG
- 36Liu QiweiG
- 35Huang ZhengyuD
- 2Yang RuiqiD
- 3Peng XiaoD
- 15Shi SongchenD
- 37Chen ZeshiM
- 38Memet ImranM
- 34Yin JiaxiM
- 13Peng PengG
- 23Yang YimingD
- 15Yu RuiD
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 16Tang MiaoM
- 6Yao JunshengM
- 36E. KartsevM
- 20Z. XuanM
- 8T. ChowF
- 10Dai Wai-TsunF
- 11A. AdemiF
- 35Wei MinzheG
- 1J. JiG
- 49H. Zhang
- 2Tian YifanD
- 56Wang YuhengM
- 14Li LongM
- 17Li NingM
- 19Zhang YufengM
- 39Yu MenghuiM
Form going into Shandong Luneng vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Shandong Luneng
- W3-2away to Shanghai Shenhua28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island22 August 2026
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
- L0-1SHANGHAI SIPG28 August 2026
- D1-1Hangzhou Greentown22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
What these results say
- Shandong Luneng conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Shandong Luneng won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Shandong Luneng scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shandong Luneng | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 37 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Shandong Luneng and Sichuan Jiuniu
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan16 goals6 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.