Shandong Luneng
vs
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League prediction
The model makes it 30% Shandong Luneng, 19% draw, 51% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 3.33, 5.26 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Shandong Luneng 2.01, Sichuan Jiuniu 2.61.
Both teams to score: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 84%, under 2.5: 16%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Shandong Luneng
- W3-1Qingdao Jonoon14 August 2026
- W2-1Tianjin Teda9 August 2026
- W1-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG1 August 2026
- L1-2Henan Jianye26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Dalian Zhixing18 July 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
- W2-1away to Shenyang Urban15 August 2026
- L0-4away to Beijing Guoan7 August 2026
- W2-0Chongqing Tongliang Long2 August 2026
- L3-4away to Yunnan Yukun26 July 2026
- L0-2away to Wuhan Three Towns18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 33 |
| 9 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Shandong Luneng
- Cryzan14 goals5 assists
- Zeca9 goals4 assists
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Wesley Moraes10 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shandong Luneng carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.55 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Shandong Luneng L-L-W-W-W; Sichuan Jiuniu L-L-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.01 goals for Shandong Luneng and 2.61 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shandong Luneng rate 0.59 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.92 and 1.80.
That points to 84% for over two and a half goals and 80% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Shandong Luneng, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Shandong Luneng against 2.61 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Shandong Luneng's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.8 for Sichuan Jiuniu.