Dinamo Tbilisi
vs
Gagra
Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Tbilisi 4-0 Gagra.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dinamo Tbilisi, 32% draw, 24% Gagra — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Dinamo Tbilisi 1.29, Gagra 0.66.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Torpedo Kutaisi6 September 2026
- W2-1Dila31 August 2026
- L0-3Rustavi15 August 2026
Gagra
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
- L0-3away to Rustavi22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 27 | +13 | 42 |
| 8 | Gagra | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos2 goals2 assists
Gagra
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 24 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Dinamo Tbilisi carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.01 for Gagra. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.66 for Gagra. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Tbilisi rate 0.41 in attack and 1.57 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gagra rate 0.35 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 18.3% chance of the title and Gagra 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Dinamo Tbilisi against 0.66 for Gagra. Dinamo Tbilisi's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.57 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.94 for Gagra.