Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Dinamo Tbilisi 4-0 Gagra.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Dinamo Tbilisi, 25% draw, 30% Gagra — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Tbilisi at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Line-ups
- 20Lucas FloresG
- 17P. PsaltisD
- 27N. KurdićD
- 13M. PourzitídisD
- 6Leonardo SantosD
- 8WeltonM
- 23J. KankavaM
- 22N. NinuaM
- 10G. KharaishviliM
- 7K. DoltmurzievF
- 14M. Do CoutoF
- 32L. TsikoliaM
- 11M. VatsadzeF
- 34M. GbomaduF
- 26G. GoguaM
- 33L. HouriM
- 39K. KakashviliM
- 18T. KvaratskheliaF
- 30G. Lomidze
- 37M. MakatsariaG
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 2AugustoD
- 25WandersonM
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 21alexander feikrishviliM
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 9D. MujiriF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 35Alexander TimchenkoG
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 15N. Slavitsky
- 17Vinicius CesarD
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
Form going into Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Torpedo Kutaisi6 September 2026
- W2-1Dila31 August 2026
- L2-7away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius30 July 2026
- W3-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius23 July 2026
Gagra
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Torpedo Kutaisi10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dila5 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Tbilisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 54 |
| 8 | Gagra | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra
- 14 June 2026Gagra 2–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
- 21 April 2026Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 21 November 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 2–4 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 13 September 2025Dinamo Tbilisi 0–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
- 16 May 2025Gagra 1–1 Dinamo TbilisiErovnuli Liga
Leading scorers: Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra
Dinamo Tbilisi
GoalsAssists
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos22
Gagra
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dinamo Tbilisi beat Gagra 4–0. The model had made a win for Dinamo Tbilisi its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Nika Ninua 3' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Giorgi Kharaishvili 35' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Giorgi Kharaishvili 45' for Dinamo Tbilisi, Numan Kurdic 64' for Dinamo Tbilisi. Sent off: augusto (Gagra) 63'.
How the call on Dinamo Tbilisi v Gagra has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 29% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is the draw, down 4 points.
- Dinamo Tbilisi win45%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −4
- Gagra win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Dinamo Tbilisi's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Gagra's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.