FC Iberia 1999
vs
Spaeri
Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Iberia 1999 1-0 Spaeri.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC Iberia 1999, 27% draw, 31% Spaeri — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Iberia 1999 1.90, Spaeri 1.47.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Iberia 1999 vs Spaeri
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Iberia 1999 at 42% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Spaeri
FC Iberia 1999
- L0-2away to Dinamo Batumi9 September 2026
- W2-1Samgurali5 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gagra31 August 2026
- L3-4away to Torpedo Kutaisi15 August 2026
Spaeri
- D1-1Rustavi9 September 2026
- D2-2away to Meshakhte5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dinamo Batumi30 August 2026
- L3-4Samgurali22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Iberia 1999 | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 40 |
| 9 | Spaeri | 26 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Iberia 1999 carry a model rating of 5.94 against 5.97 for Spaeri. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.90 goals for FC Iberia 1999 and 1.47 for Spaeri. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Iberia 1999 rate 0.43 in attack and 2.66 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spaeri rate 0.46 and 2.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Iberia 1999 a 10.5% chance of the title and Spaeri 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Iberia 1999 the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.9 expected goals for FC Iberia 1999 against 1.47 for Spaeri. FC Iberia 1999's attack/defence rating is 0.43/2.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.72 for Spaeri.