Regular Season - 21 · 14 September 2026, 17:00 UTC

Sirius vs Degerfors IF Allsvenskan prediction & result

Studenternas IP, Uppsala
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Sirius 2-0 Degerfors IF.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Sirius, 33% draw, 30% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 2.70, 3.03 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Sirius 1.09, Degerfors IF 0.88.

Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Sirius vs Degerfors IF

39%
Both teams to score
31%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines0-0 15%1-0 15%1-1 14%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sirius at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ahmad Faqa (OG)
2'
12'
🔁Kazper Karlssonout: gideon yaw yiriyon
Jesper Uneken
16'
⚽Melker Heierassist: Marcus Lindberg
44'
51'
Karim Boutera
🔁Zalán Vancsaout: N. Jönsson
58'
68'
🔁Robin Dzabicout: Arman Taranis
68'
🔁Noel Milleskogout: Ludvig Fritzson
🔁Victor Svenssonout: Charlie Nildén
77'
🔁Isak Bjerkeboout: Simon Sandberg
88'
🔁Jesper Unekenout: Odera Samuel Onuchukwu Adindu
88'

Match stats — Sirius vs Degerfors IF

42%Possession58%
16Shots15
8On target7
7Corners7

Line-ups

Sirius 4-3-3
  • 34D. CelicG
  • 5H. CastegrenD
  • 2Mohamed SoumahD
  • 4T. AnkerD
  • 22O. KrusnellD
  • 24V. SvenssonM
  • 10M. HeierM
  • 6M. LindbergM
  • 30Z. VancsaF
  • 9J. UnekenF
  • 11I. BjerkeboF
Substitutes
  • 18A. WikmanM
  • 29Ake AnderssonF
  • 1I. DiawaraG
  • 20V. EkströmD
  • 17N. JönssonF
  • 21C. NildénM
  • 7J. PerssonF
  • 15S. SandbergD
  • 25O. AdinduF
Coach: Andreas Engelmark
Degerfors IF 4-2-3-1
  • 38M. IgonenG
  • 16S. OhlssonD
  • 2Ahmad FaqaD
  • 3Nikolai SkusethD
  • 6D. SundgrenD
  • 8B. HusseinM
  • 4K. KarlssonM
  • 23R. DzabicM
  • 11D. VukojevićM
  • 10N. MilleskogM
  • 9K. BouteraF
Substitutes
  • 13M. HamiltonM
  • 17Arman TaranisF
  • 15N. MoroD
  • 1W. JakobssonG
  • 14L. FritzsonF
  • 28J. HernandezD
Coach: H. Goitom

Form going into Sirius vs Degerfors IF

Sirius

  • W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
  • L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
  • L0-3BK Hacken21 August 2026
  • L3-4away to Mjallby AIF15 August 2026

Degerfors IF

  • W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
  • L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
  • L0-2away to IF Brommapojkarna23 August 2026
  • W3-0IFK Goteborg16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Sirius2115335027+2348
14Degerfors IF2154121933-1419

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sirius vs Degerfors IF

  • 4 April 2026Degerfors IF 0–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 24 January 2026Sirius 2–1 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 21 September 2025Sirius 1–3 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
  • 3 May 2025Degerfors IF 1–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
  • 27 January 2024Sirius 1–1 Degerfors IFFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 October 2023Sirius 3–2 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: Sirius and Degerfors IF

Sirius

  • R. Ure15 goals2 assists
  • I. Bjerkebo13 goals5 assists

Degerfors IF

No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.09 goals for Sirius and 0.88 for Degerfors IF; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ahmad Faqa 2' (Sirius), Melker Heier 44' (Sirius).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Sirius against 0.88 for Degerfors IF. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.31 for Degerfors IF.