Inter Turku
vs
VPS
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: Inter Turku 1-0 VPS.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Inter Turku, 24% draw, 18% VPS — fair odds of 1.72, 4.17 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Inter Turku 2.53, VPS 0.94.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Inter Turku vs VPS
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Inter Turku vs VPS
Inter Turku
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
- W1-0KuPS31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Turku PS23 August 2026
- W3-2away to AC Oulu16 August 2026
VPS
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
- L0-1Lahti31 August 2026
- W1-0away to Ilves22 August 2026
- L1-3Turku PS14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 42 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Turku vs VPS
- 2 August 2026VPS 0–1 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 30 June 2026VPS 2–3 Inter TurkuSuomen Cup
- 4 April 2026Inter Turku 0–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 31 August 2025Inter Turku 2–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 19 April 2025VPS 0–2 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 28 June 2024Inter Turku 3–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: Inter Turku and VPS
Inter Turku
- J. Yli-Kokko2 goals1 assists
VPS
- L. Smyth5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Inter Turku carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.01 for VPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Inter Turku and 0.94 for VPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Inter Turku rate 0.58 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VPS rate 0.49 and 2.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Inter Turku a 53.3% chance of the title and VPS 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Inter Turku against 0.94 for VPS. Inter Turku's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.68 for VPS.