14 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul Liga I prediction & result

Cluj Arena, Cluj-Napoca
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Universitatea Cluj 3-0 Oțelul.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Universitatea Cluj, 30% draw, 32% Oțelul — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Universitatea Cluj at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitatea Cluj99%Draw1%Oțelul0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ovidiu Bicassist: Dan Nistor
31'
48'
Milen Zhelev
Dorin Codrea
58'
60'
🔁Ze Turboout: João Paulino
60'
🔁Matei Frunzăout: Denis Bordun
🔁Mouhamadou Drammehout: Pedro Pinho
62'
🔁Issouf Macalouout: Marius Stefanescu
62'
64'
Andrei Ciobanu
Pedro Pinho
65'
🔁Jovo Lukićout: Alibek Aliev
73'
🔁Dan Nistorout: Andrei Gheorghiță
74'
74'
Andrei Ciobanu
77'
Teodor lungu
79'
🔁Milen Zhelevout: Dominick Zator
79'
🔁Pedro Nunoout: Rafael Brito
⚽Oucasse Mendy
80'
🔁Dino Mikanovićout: Elio Capradossi
84'
•Alexandru Chipciu
87'
•Alibek Aliev
90+1'
⚽Alibek Aliev (pen)
90+2'

Match stats — Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul

58%Possession42%
12Shots6
3On target2
3Corners4

Line-ups

Universitatea Cluj 4-2-3-1
  • 1Ştefan Daniel LefterG
  • 24D. MikanovićD
  • 6I. CristeaD
  • 8D. CodreaD
  • 27A. ChipciuD
  • 7M. DrammehM
  • 94O. BicM
  • 19I. MacalouM
  • 10D. NistorM
  • 29O. MendyM
  • 17J. LukićF
Substitutes
  • 18Pedro PinhoM
  • 23E. CapradossiD
  • 2A. ChinteșD
  • 12A. FridayM
  • 77A. GheorghițăF
  • 93N. MichaelG
  • 21D. MoldovanG
  • 22F. PouloloD
  • 98G. SimionM
Coach: C. Bergodi
Oțelul 4-4-2
  • 1C. Dur-BozoancăG
  • 2M. ZhelevD
  • 3G. ChristopoulosD
  • 6P. IacobD
  • 5H. SyllaD
  • 30M. FrunzăM
  • 17A. CiobanuM
  • 39T. LunguM
  • 10AndrézinhoM
  • 11Zé TurboF
  • 27Pedro NunoF
Substitutes
  • 8Rafael BritoM
  • 44D. ZatorD
  • 16D. NeicuD
  • 15Mehmet TitizF
  • 7João PauloF
  • 13M. ContraG
  • 77A. BalanicaF
  • 24D. BordunM
  • 18D. AfteneM
Coach: S. Tomas

Form going into Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul

Universitatea Cluj

All competitions we cover

  • L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
  • L2-3Petrolul Ploiesti28 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti22 August 2026
  • W2-1Uta Arad17 August 2026
  • W2-1FC Botosani3 August 2026

Oțelul

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
  • W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Petrolul Ploiesti7 August 2026

What these results say

  • Universitatea Cluj conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Universitatea Cluj had three goals or more.
  • Universitatea Cluj scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Oțelul failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Oțelul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Oțelul had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Universitatea Cluj137152520+522
14Oțelul132561521-611

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul

  • 27 February 2026Universitatea Cluj 4–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 11 February 2026Universitatea Cluj 2–0 OțelulCupa României
  • 25 October 2025Oțelul 1–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
  • 21 February 2025Oțelul 0–1 Universitatea ClujLiga I
  • 18 October 2024Universitatea Cluj 2–0 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: Universitatea Cluj and Oțelul

Universitatea Cluj

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lukić63
  • A. Aliev62

Oțelul

GoalsAssists

  • Patrick40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universitatea Cluj beat Oțelul 3–0. The model had made a win for Universitatea Cluj its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ovidiu Bic 31' for Universitatea Cluj, Oucasse Mendy 80' for Universitatea Cluj, Alibek Aliev (penalty) 90+2' for Universitatea Cluj. Sent off: Andrei Ciobanu (Oțelul) 74'.

How the call on Universitatea Cluj v Oțelul has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 38% / 30% / 32%: the biggest move is Universitatea Cluj's chance of winning, down 9 points.

  1. Universitatea Cluj win38%▼ −9
  2. Draw30%▲ +4
  3. Oțelul win32%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.