Regular Season - 9 · 14 September 2026, 15:00 UTC

Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul Liga I prediction & result

Cluj Arena, Cluj-Napoca
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Universitatea Cluj 3-0 Oțelul.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Universitatea Cluj, 29% draw, 24% Oțelul — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Universitatea Cluj 1.69, Oțelul 0.87.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul

48%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-0 12%1-1 12%2-0 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Universitatea Cluj at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universitatea Cluj99%Draw1%Oțelul0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Ovidiu Bicassist: Dan Nistor
31'
48'
Milen Zhelev
Dorin Codrea
58'
60'
🔁Ze Turboout: João Paulino
60'
🔁Matei Frunzăout: Denis Bordun
🔁Mouhamadou Drammehout: Pedro Pinho
62'
🔁Issouf Macalouout: Marius Stefanescu
62'
64'
Andrei Ciobanu
Pedro Pinho
65'
🔁Jovo Lukićout: Alibek Aliev
73'
🔁Dan Nistorout: Andrei Gheorghiță
74'
74'
Andrei Ciobanu
77'
Teodor lungu
79'
🔁Milen Zhelevout: Dominick Zator
79'
🔁Pedro Nunoout: Rafael Brito
⚽Oucasse Mendy
80'
🔁Dino Mikanovićout: Elio Capradossi
84'
•Alexandru Chipciu
87'
•Alibek Aliev
90+1'
⚽Alibek Aliev (pen)
90+2'

Match stats — Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul

58%Possession42%
12Shots6
3On target2
3Corners4

Line-ups

Universitatea Cluj 4-2-3-1
  • 1Ştefan Daniel LefterG
  • 24D. MikanovićD
  • 6I. CristeaD
  • 8D. CodreaD
  • 27A. ChipciuD
  • 7M. DrammehM
  • 94O. BicM
  • 19I. MacalouM
  • 10D. NistorM
  • 29O. MendyM
  • 17J. LukićF
Substitutes
  • 18Pedro PinhoM
  • 23E. CapradossiD
  • 2A. ChinteșD
  • 12A. FridayM
  • 77A. GheorghițăF
  • 93N. MichaelG
  • 21D. MoldovanG
  • 22F. PouloloD
  • 98G. SimionM
Coach: C. Bergodi
Oțelul 4-4-2
  • 1C. Dur-BozoancăG
  • 2M. ZhelevD
  • 3G. ChristopoulosD
  • 6P. IacobD
  • 5H. SyllaD
  • 30M. FrunzăM
  • 17A. CiobanuM
  • 39T. LunguM
  • 10AndrézinhoM
  • 11Zé TurboF
  • 27Pedro NunoF
Substitutes
  • 8Rafael BritoM
  • 44D. ZatorD
  • 16D. NeicuD
  • 15Mehmet TitizF
  • 7João PauloF
  • 13M. ContraG
  • 77A. BalanicaF
  • 24D. BordunM
  • 18D. AfteneM
Coach: S. Tomas

Form going into Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul

Universitatea Cluj

  • L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
  • L2-3Petrolul Ploiesti28 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Dinamo Bucuresti22 August 2026
  • W2-1Uta Arad17 August 2026

Oțelul

  • L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
  • W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026
  • D1-1Universitatea Craiova16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Universitatea Cluj84041213-112
13Oțelul9243912-310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universitatea Cluj vs Oțelul

  • 14 September 2026Universitatea Cluj 3–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 27 February 2026Universitatea Cluj 4–0 OțelulLiga I
  • 11 February 2026Universitatea Cluj 2–0 OțelulCupa României
  • 25 October 2025Oțelul 1–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
  • 21 February 2025Oțelul 0–1 Universitatea ClujLiga I
  • 18 October 2024Universitatea Cluj 2–0 OțelulLiga I

Leading scorers: Universitatea Cluj and Oțelul

Universitatea Cluj

  • A. Aliev5 goals2 assists

Oțelul

  • Patrick4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.69 goals for Universitatea Cluj and 0.87 for Oțelul; the game produced 3 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Ovidiu Bic 31' (Universitatea Cluj), Oucasse Mendy 80' (Universitatea Cluj), Alibek Aliev 90' (Universitatea Cluj).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Universitatea Cluj the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj against 0.87 for Oțelul. Universitatea Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.4 for Oțelul.