Dila vs Gagra Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: Dila 1-0 Gagra.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Dila, 24% draw, 22% Gagra — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dila at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dila vs Gagra
Line-ups
- 1D. KereselidzeG
- 2T. KikabidzeD
- 13Joao AraujoD
- 5M. PoeketieD
- 16M. SanyangF
- 15G. KobakhidzeM
- 17B. AnoffM
- 24M. DioufD
- 10O. ParulavaM
- 22S. ShekiladzeF
- 9M. KanteF
- 12L. SanikidzeG
- 8L. MenteshashviliM
- 11K. GrabovskisF
- 14G. JalaghoniaD
- 19B. GogoberishviliM
- 21Z. MuselianiF
- 25L. YarbroughD
- 33R. EtouD
- 1O. VorobeyG
- 40ClaudineiD
- 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
- 2AugustoD
- 4V. ArsicD
- 33L. GurchianiM
- 21A. Peikrishvili
- 25WandersonM
- 18V. BliznichenkoF
- 9D. MujiriF
- 30G. GoshtelianiF
- 35A. Dmitrievich
- 3O. ChochiaD
- 5Y. NazarovD
- 6M. TsintsadzeM
- 8I. SkrypnykM
- 11S. ZoidzeF
- 19G. KhachidzeF
- 23A. AndreychukF
- 29R. AdeyeyeF
Form going into Dila vs Gagra
Dila
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Dinamo Tbilisi31 August 2026
- L0-3away to Apollon Limassol28 July 2026
- L0-4Apollon Limassol23 July 2026
Gagra
All competitions we cover
- W2-0FC Iberia 199931 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Dila | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 40 | 37 | +3 | 40 |
| 8 | Gagra | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Dila beat Gagra 1–0. The model had made a win for Dila its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: L. Menteshashvili 72' for Dila.
How the call on Dila v Gagra has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 54% / 24% / 22%: the biggest move is Dila's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Dila win54%▲ +2
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Gagra win22%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.