Jeonbuk Motors
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 63% Jeonbuk Motors, 25% draw, 12% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 1.59, 4.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (18%).
Expected goals: Jeonbuk Motors 1.63, Pohang Steelers 0.57.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jeonbuk Motors
- L2-3away to Bucheon FC 199516 August 2026
- L1-3Jeju United FC8 August 2026
- D0-0FC Seoul1 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pohang Steelers25 July 2026
- D0-0Daejeon Citizen21 July 2026
Pohang Steelers
- W2-1away to Gwangju FC15 August 2026
- L0-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 August 2026
- L0-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC1 August 2026
- L0-2Jeonbuk Motors25 July 2026
- L1-3away to FC Seoul22 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 34 |
| 6 | Pohang Steelers | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Jeonbuk Motors
- Lee Seung-Woo3 goals1 assists
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Jeonbuk Motors carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.05 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Jeonbuk Motors D-W-D-L-L; Pohang Steelers L-L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.57 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.40 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.43 and 2.15.
That points to 38% for over two and a half goals and 35% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (18%), 2-0 (15%), 0-0 (12%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jeonbuk Motors a 0.2% chance of the title and Pohang Steelers 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeonbuk Motors the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors against 0.57 for Pohang Steelers. Jeonbuk Motors's attack/defence rating is 0.4/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.15 for Pohang Steelers.