FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali Erovnuli Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Iberia 1999 2-1 Samgurali.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Iberia 1999, 26% draw, 28% Samgurali — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Erovnuli Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Iberia 1999 at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali
Line-ups
- 1T. MegrelishviliG
- 40G. KobuladzeD
- 25A. AmisulashviliD
- 4V. SelimovicD
- 5J. JinjolavaD
- 8B. KardavaM
- 33J. Tiboue
- 6N. DadianiM
- 18Lucas Cafe
- 19N. SikharulashviliM
- 10Z. NatchkebiaF
- 16R. KurtanidzeG
- 3P. Cancar
- 7D. KvartskhavaF
- 9A. DzaganiaF
- 14I. AlhassanM
- 22S. FigueredoD
- 23E. KuliyevM
- 27G. KutsiaM
- 30N. BochorishviliD
- 21A. SiukaevG
- 13L. GegetchkoriD
- 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
- 39RyanD
- 22G. GogiaD
- 17N. TsetskhladzeF
- 9T. GaprindashviliF
- 8I. BidzinashviliM
- 20Vinicius ViannaM
- 15Gean RodriguesF
- 28Claudio CebolinhaF
- 12A. KasradzeG
- 11D. KrasovskiF
- 14T. GoletianiM
- 19I. SiradzeF
- 25M. ShatirishviliD
- 26Z. IashviliM
- 27L. ShergelashviliD
Form going into FC Iberia 1999 vs Samgurali
FC Iberia 1999
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Gagra31 August 2026
- L1-2Jagiellonia27 August 2026
- L0-4away to Jagiellonia20 August 2026
- W2-1Larne11 August 2026
- D0-0away to Larne4 August 2026
Samgurali
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Rustavi30 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Iberia 1999 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Iberia 1999 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Iberia 1999 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 55 |
| 6 | Samgurali | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
FC Iberia 1999 beat Samgurali 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Iberia 1999 at 46%. The goals: J. Jinjolava (penalty) 12' for FC Iberia 1999, L. Gegetchkori (penalty) 33' for Samgurali, N. Bochorishvili 89' for FC Iberia 1999.
How the call on FC Iberia 1999 v Samgurali has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 44% / 26% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 46% / 26% / 28%: the biggest move is FC Iberia 1999's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Iberia 1999 win46%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Samgurali win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.