FC Seoul
vs
Incheon United
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 35% FC Seoul, 28% draw, 37% Incheon United — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.23, Incheon United 1.28.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Seoul
- W4-2Daejeon Citizen15 August 2026
- D0-0away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC8 August 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors1 August 2026
- L1-3Ulsan Hyundai FC26 July 2026
- W3-1Pohang Steelers22 July 2026
Incheon United
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC16 August 2026
- D3-3away to Jeju United FC2 August 2026
- D1-1Bucheon FC 199526 July 2026
- W2-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC21 July 2026
- W1-0Jeonbuk Motors18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 39 | 19 | +20 | 47 |
| 8 | Incheon United | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
FC Seoul
- Lee Seung-Mo3 goals1 assists
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša7 goals
- M. Ferrier4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Seoul carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.68 for Incheon United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Seoul W-L-D-D-W; Incheon United W-W-D-D-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for FC Seoul and 1.28 for Incheon United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Seoul rate 0.61 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Incheon United rate 0.76 and 1.07.
That points to 46% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Seoul, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Seoul a 96.8% chance of the title and Incheon United 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for FC Seoul against 1.28 for Incheon United. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.07 for Incheon United.