UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round · 30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

Brandywell Stadium, Derry

Full time0 – 1

Final score: Derry City 0-1 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Derry City, 22% draw, 57% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 4.76, 4.55 and 1.75. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Derry City 1.17, HNK Rijeka 2.07.

Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

61%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 10%0-2 8%

Head-to-head: Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

30 July 2026Derry City 0–1 HNK RijekaUEFA Europa Conference League
23 July 2026HNK Rijeka 1–0 Derry CityUEFA Europa Conference League

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives HNK Rijeka the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Derry City against 2.07 for HNK Rijeka. Derry City's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.15 for HNK Rijeka.