30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Derry City 0-1 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Derry City, 22% draw, 58% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 5.00, 4.55 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. First leg: HNK Rijeka 1–0 Derry City (23 Jul) →

HNK Rijeka went through 2–0 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Rijeka at 58% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derry City0%Draw3%HNK Rijeka97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽D. Adu Adjei
Nick Twisk
29'
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
46'
🔁L. Boyceout: J. Clarke
46'
🔁B. Lyons-Fosterout: B. Cotter
62'
🔁J. Olayinkaout: D. Burns
62'
65'
Ante Majstorović
Cameron Dummigan
69'
🔁P. McCleanout: J. Stott
81'
81'
🔁N. Jankovicout: J. Lasickas
89'
🔁T. Frukout: I. Cubelic
Darragh Burns
90+3'
90+2'
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: G. Grulovic

Line-ups

Derry City 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 24B. Lyons-FosterD
  • 23C. DummiganD
  • 3P. McCleanD
  • 19B. FlemingM
  • 28J. OlayinkaM
  • 17N. TwiskM
  • 8A. O'ReillyM
  • 14E. ChapmanM
  • 7M. DuffyM
  • 27L. BoyceF
Substitutes
  • 13T. NorcottG
  • 2B. CotterM
  • 4J. StottD
  • 12D. BurnsM
  • 22C. BarrD
  • 32T. DohertyF
  • 6R. SlevinD
  • 15J. ClarkeM
Coach: Tiernan Lynch
HNK Rijeka 4-3-3
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
  • 4N. JankovicM
Substitutes
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 11G. RukavinaM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 91N. BodeticD
  • 31D. NwolokorG
  • 8I. CubelicM
Coach: Matjaz Kek

Form going into Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

Derry City

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026

HNK Rijeka

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Derry City23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Derry City and HNK Rijeka in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5Derry CityPremier Division351114104845+347
5HNK RijekaHNL105231714+317

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premier Division · HNL

Head-to-head: Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

  • 23 July 2026HNK Rijeka 1–0 Derry CityUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Derry City and HNK Rijeka

Derry City

GoalsAssists

  • M. Duffy115
  • J. Clarke73

HNK Rijeka

GoalsAssists

  • D. Adu-Adjei43
  • S. Vignato41
  • T. Fruk34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Rijeka won 1–0 at Derry City. The model had made a win for HNK Rijeka its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: D. Adu Adjei 14' for HNK Rijeka.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.