30 July 2026, 17:30 UTC

Derry City vs HNK Rijeka UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Derry City 0-1 HNK Rijeka.

Before kick-off the model made it 20% Derry City, 22% draw, 58% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 5.00, 4.55 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Rijeka at 58% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derry City0%Draw3%HNK Rijeka97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽D. Adu Adjei
Nick Twisk
29'
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
46'
🔁L. Boyceout: J. Clarke
46'
🔁B. Lyons-Fosterout: B. Cotter
62'
🔁J. Olayinkaout: D. Burns
62'
65'
Ante Majstorović
Cameron Dummigan
69'
🔁P. McCleanout: J. Stott
81'
81'
🔁N. Jankovicout: J. Lasickas
89'
🔁T. Frukout: I. Cubelic
Darragh Burns
90+3'
90+2'
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: G. Grulovic

Line-ups

Derry City 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. MaherG
  • 24B. Lyons-FosterD
  • 23C. DummiganD
  • 3P. McCleanD
  • 19B. FlemingM
  • 28J. OlayinkaM
  • 17N. TwiskM
  • 8A. O'ReillyM
  • 14E. ChapmanM
  • 7M. DuffyM
  • 27L. BoyceF
Substitutes
  • 13T. NorcottG
  • 2B. CotterM
  • 4J. StottD
  • 12D. BurnsM
  • 22C. BarrD
  • 32T. DohertyF
  • 6R. SlevinD
  • 15J. ClarkeM
Coach: Tiernan Lynch
HNK Rijeka 4-3-3
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 18D. Adu AdjeiF
  • 4N. JankovicM
Substitutes
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 11G. RukavinaM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 91N. BodeticD
  • 31D. NwolokorG
  • 8I. CubelicM
Coach: Matjaz Kek

Form going into Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

Derry City

  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka23 July 2026

HNK Rijeka

  • W1-0Derry City23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Derry City and HNK Rijeka in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5Derry CityPremier Division3181494442+238
5HNK RijekaHNL6321107+311

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premier Division · HNL

Head-to-head: Derry City vs HNK Rijeka

  • 30 July 2026Derry City 0–1 HNK RijekaUEFA Europa Conference League
  • 23 July 2026HNK Rijeka 1–0 Derry CityUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Derry City and HNK Rijeka

Derry City

  • M. Duffy10 goals5 assists
  • J. Clarke6 goals3 assists

HNK Rijeka

  • D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
  • T. Fruk2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.