23 July 2026, 18:45 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs Derry City UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion HNK Rijeka Dean Šćulac, Rijeka
Full time1 – 0

Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% HNK Rijeka, 49% draw, 23% Derry City — fair odds of 3.57, 2.04 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 49% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Ante Oreč
7'
⚽T. Frukassist: B. Pavic
52'
Daniel Adu-Adjei
59'
62'
🔁N. Twiskout: A. O'Reilly
62'
🔁L. Boyceout: J. Clarke
62'
🔁J. Stottout: C. Dummigan
🔁D. Adu Adjeiout: A. Juric
70'
75'
🔁B. Lyons-Fosterout: C. Barr
🔁A. Gojakout: G. Rukavina
80'
80'
🔁J. Olayinkaout: D. Burns
🔁T. Frukout: J. Lasickas
90+1'

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 99Aleksa TodorovićG
  • 22Ante OrečD
  • 45Ante MajstorovićD
  • 5Alfonso BarcoM
  • 34Mladen DevetakD
  • 6Branko PavićM
  • 26Tiago DantasM
  • 14Amer GojakM
  • 10Toni FrukM
  • 4Niko JankovićM
  • 18Daniel Adu-AdjeiF
Substitutes
  • 77Ante Matej JurićF
  • 11Gabriel RukavinaM
  • 23Justas LasickasD
  • 1Vito KovačG
  • 31Dávid NwolokorG
  • 3Moreno ŽivkovićD
  • 51Anel HusićD
  • 91Noel BodetićD
  • 19Samuele VignatoM
Derry City 4-1-4-1
  • 1Brian MaherG
  • 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
  • 4Jamie StottD
  • 3Patrick McCleanD
  • 19Brandon FlemingM
  • 17Nick TwiskM
  • 2Barry CotterM
  • 28James OlayinkaM
  • 14Ellis ChapmanM
  • 7Michael DuffyM
  • 27Liam BoyceF
Substitutes
  • 23Cameron DummiganD
  • 8Adam O'ReillyM
  • 15James ClarkeM
  • 22Conor BarrD
  • 12Darragh BurnsM
  • 13Tom NorcottG
  • 6Robert SlevinD
  • 25Christy GroganD
  • 16James McCleanM
Coach: Tiernan Lynch

HNK Rijeka and Derry City in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5HNK RijekaHNL6321107+311
5Derry CityPremier Division3181494442+238

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Premier Division

Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs Derry City

  • 23 July 2026HNK Rijeka 1–0 Derry CityUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and Derry City

HNK Rijeka

  • D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
  • T. Fruk2 goals3 assists

Derry City

  • M. Duffy10 goals5 assists
  • J. Clarke6 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.