HNK Rijeka vs Derry City UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-0 Derry City.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% HNK Rijeka, 49% draw, 23% Derry City — fair odds of 3.57, 2.04 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
The tie
First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2nd Qualifying Round tie. Second leg: Derry City v HNK Rijeka, 30 Jul →
HNK Rijeka went through 2–0 on aggregate.
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 49% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 99Aleksa TodorovićG
- 22Ante OrečD
- 45Ante MajstorovićD
- 5Alfonso BarcoM
- 34Mladen DevetakD
- 6Branko PavićM
- 26Tiago DantasM
- 14Amer GojakM
- 10Toni FrukM
- 4Niko JankovićM
- 18Daniel Adu-AdjeiF
- 77Ante Matej JurićF
- 11Gabriel RukavinaM
- 23Justas LasickasD
- 1Vito KovačG
- 31Dávid NwolokorG
- 3Moreno ŽivkovićD
- 51Anel HusićD
- 91Noel BodetićD
- 19Samuele VignatoM
- 1Brian MaherG
- 24Brooklyn Lyons-FosterD
- 4Jamie StottD
- 3Patrick McCleanD
- 19Brandon FlemingM
- 17Nick TwiskM
- 2Barry CotterM
- 28James OlayinkaM
- 14Ellis ChapmanM
- 7Michael DuffyM
- 27Liam BoyceF
- 23Cameron DummiganD
- 8Adam O'ReillyM
- 15James ClarkeM
- 22Conor BarrD
- 12Darragh BurnsM
- 13Tom NorcottG
- 6Robert SlevinD
- 25Christy GroganD
- 16James McCleanM
HNK Rijeka and Derry City in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 | Derry City | Premier Division | 35 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 47 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Premier Division
Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and Derry City
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- S. Vignato41
- T. Fruk34
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy115
- J. Clarke73
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Rijeka beat Derry City 1–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 49% and given a win for HNK Rijeka 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: T. Fruk 52' for HNK Rijeka.