10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Blackburn vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result

Ewood Park, Blackburn
Referee: Tom Nield
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Blackburn 2-1 Cardiff.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Blackburn, 29% draw, 28% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Blackburn at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Blackburn97%Draw3%Cardiff0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Andri Guðjohnsen
28'
⚽Todd Cantwellassist: Ryoya Morishita
38'
53'
⚽Callum Robinsonassist: Jack Moylan
60'
🔁C. Ashfordout: Christopher Willock
🔁Andri Guðjohnsenout: Moussa·Baradji
64'
🔁Ryoya Morishitaout: J. Fevrier
64'
71'
🔁Joel Colwillout: David Turnbull
71'
🔁Callum Robinsonout: Isaak Davies
🔁Oladapo Afolayanout: Augustus Kargbo
74'
78'
🔁Joel Baganout: Ronan Kpakio
78'
🔁Dylan Lawlorout: Calum Scanlon
🔁Kristi Montgomeryout: Jake Garrett
83'
Todd Cantwell
90+6'

Match stats — Blackburn vs Cardiff

42%Possession58%
17Shots10
8On target1
11Corners6
1.79xG1.06

Goals against chances

Blackburn2 from 1.79 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cardiff1 from 1.06 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Blackburn 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. TóthG
  • 2R. AlebiosuD
  • 17H. CarterD
  • 15S. McLoughlinD
  • 3H. PickeringD
  • 8Sam MorsyM
  • 31Kristi MontgomeryM
  • 25R. MorishitaM
  • 10T. CantwellM
  • 21O. AfolayanM
  • 9A. GuðjohnsenF
Substitutes
  • 6Tom AtchesonD
  • 24M. BaradjiM
  • 27Gady BeyukuD
  • 14D. De NeveM
  • 11J. FevrierF
  • 30J. GarrettM
  • 7A. KargboF
  • 1A. PearsG
  • 39H. PatesD
Coach: Tony Mowbray
Cardiff 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. TrottG
  • 38P. NgD
  • 4G. OshoD
  • 48D. LawlorD
  • 3J. BaganD
  • 18A. RobertsonM
  • 27J. ColwillM
  • 11O. TannerM
  • 8J. MoylanM
  • 45Cian AshfordM
  • 47C. RobinsonF
Substitutes
  • 44R. KpakioD
  • 43P. MorenoM
  • 23C. ScanlonD
  • 14D. TurnbullM
  • 30H. TyrerG
  • 16C. WillockM
  • 2W. FishD
  • 39I. DaviesF
  • 50Charlie HoltM
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy

Form going into Blackburn vs Cardiff

Blackburn

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
  • W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
  • L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Preston5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Lincoln1 September 2026

Cardiff

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
  • D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Blackburn failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Blackburn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cardiff failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Blackburn156362223-121
14Cardiff154652727018

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Cardiff

  • 15 March 2025Blackburn 1–2 CardiffChampionship
  • 9 November 2024Cardiff 1–3 BlackburnChampionship
  • 20 February 2024Cardiff 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
  • 21 October 2023Blackburn 1–0 CardiffChampionship
  • 27 September 2023Blackburn 5–2 CardiffLeague Cup

The full Blackburn vs Cardiff record →

Leading scorers: Blackburn and Cardiff

Blackburn

GoalsAssists

  • A. Guðjohnsen101
  • O. Afolayan52

Cardiff

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moylan103
  • Y. Salech51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Blackburn beat Cardiff 2–1. The model had made a win for Blackburn its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Andri Guðjohnsen 28' for Blackburn, Todd Cantwell 38' for Blackburn, Callum Robinson 53' for Cardiff. On expected goals it finished 1.79–1.06.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Blackburn a 14.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.2% after a win, 16.7% after a draw, 17.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.2%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

For Cardiff the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 34.7% going in: 29.2% after a win, 33.1% after a draw, 38.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.4%, 3.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Blackburn v Cardiff has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is Blackburn's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Blackburn win43%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Cardiff win28%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.