Blackburn
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
Our model says: Blackburn 1–0 Cardiff
The model makes it 41% Blackburn, 30% draw, 29% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Blackburn 1.43, Cardiff 1.04.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Blackburn vs Cardiff
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Blackburn at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Blackburn vs Cardiff
Blackburn
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
- L1-2away to Preston5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Lincoln1 September 2026
Cardiff
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
- L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
What these results say
- Blackburn failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Cardiff
- 15 March 2025Blackburn 1–2 CardiffChampionship
- 9 November 2024Cardiff 1–3 BlackburnChampionship
- 20 February 2024Cardiff 0–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 21 October 2023Blackburn 1–0 CardiffChampionship
- 27 September 2023Blackburn 5–2 CardiffLeague Cup
- 1 January 2023Blackburn 1–0 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Cardiff
Blackburn
- O. Afolayan3 goals2 assists
- A. Guðjohnsen3 goals1 assists
Cardiff
- J. Moylan3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Blackburn carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.46 for Cardiff. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Blackburn and 1.04 for Cardiff. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Blackburn rate 0.64 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cardiff rate 0.68 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Blackburn a 0.6% chance of the title and Cardiff 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Blackburn against 1.04 for Cardiff. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.48 for Cardiff.