Preston
vs
Millwall
Championship prediction
Our model says: Preston 1–2 Millwall
The model makes it 31% Preston, 29% draw, 40% Millwall — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Preston 1.23, Millwall 1.57.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Preston vs Millwall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Preston vs Millwall
Preston
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
- W2-1Blackburn5 September 2026
- L1-3Bristol City1 September 2026
Millwall
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
What these results say
- Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Preston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Preston vs Millwall
- 28 February 2026Preston 0–2 MillwallChampionship
- 8 November 2025Millwall 1–1 PrestonChampionship
- 18 February 2025Preston 1–1 MillwallChampionship
- 28 September 2024Millwall 3–1 PrestonChampionship
- 27 January 2024Millwall 1–1 PrestonChampionship
- 21 October 2023Preston 1–1 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Preston and Millwall
Preston
- C. Lang3 goals
Millwall
- L. Dykes4 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Preston carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.63 for Millwall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.23 goals for Preston and 1.57 for Millwall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Preston rate 0.64 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Millwall rate 0.82 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Preston a 0% chance of the title and Millwall 1.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Preston against 1.57 for Millwall. Preston's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.27 for Millwall.