10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Preston vs Millwall Championship prediction & result

Deepdale, Preston
Referee: Ben Speedie
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Preston 0-1 Millwall.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Preston, 27% draw, 43% Millwall — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Millwall at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Preston0%Draw4%Millwall96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Leo Leroy
15'
19'
Jenson Metcalfe
🔁Harry Clarkeout: Pol Valentin
45'
🔁Callum Langout: Delano Burgzorg
59'
66'
🔁Ryan Leonardout: Tristan Crama
66'
🔁Kyrell Lisbieout: Luke Cundle
71'
Derek Mazou Sacko
🔁Andrija Vukčevićout: Thierry Small
72'
74'
🔁Taïryk Arconteout: Mark Sykes
79'
⚽Camiel Neghliassist: Luke Cundle

Match stats — Preston vs Millwall

46%Possession54%
12Shots11
1On target3
4Corners4
0.67xG1.15

Goals against chances

Preston0 from 0.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Millwall1 from 1.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Preston 3-4-1-2
  • 1D. IversenG
  • 24O. OffiahD
  • 14J. StoreyD
  • 16A. HughesD
  • 4H. ClarkeM
  • 27L. LeroyM
  • 15J. ThompsonM
  • 3A. VukčevićM
  • 7A. DevineM
  • 9J. ErabiF
  • 10C. LangF
Substitutes
  • 37D. BurgzorgF
  • 20L. GibbsM
  • 30G. GrybaF
  • 6L. LindsayD
  • 23A. MoranM
  • 21L. NichollsG
  • 11T. SmallD
  • 2Pol ValentínD
Coach: G. Alexander
Millwall 4-2-3-1
  • 34F. MarschallG
  • 18R. LeonardD
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 14Jenson MetcalfeM
  • 7T. ArconteM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 22K. LisbieM
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 29Z. LovelaceF
  • 35Y. IssoufouF
  • 45A. DoughtyM
  • 25L. CundleM
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 4T. CramaD
  • 23D. BatthD
Coach: A. Neil

Form going into Preston vs Millwall

Preston

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
  • L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
  • W2-1Blackburn5 September 2026
  • L1-3Bristol City1 September 2026

Millwall

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
  • W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
  • L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Preston failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Preston scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
  • Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
24Preston1522111330-178
16Millwall155372327-418

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Preston vs Millwall

  • 28 February 2026Preston 0–2 MillwallChampionship
  • 8 November 2025Millwall 1–1 PrestonChampionship
  • 18 February 2025Preston 1–1 MillwallChampionship
  • 28 September 2024Millwall 3–1 PrestonChampionship
  • 27 January 2024Millwall 1–1 PrestonChampionship

The full Preston vs Millwall record →

The result against the call

Millwall won 1–0 at Preston. The model had made a win for Millwall its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Camiel Neghli 79' for Millwall. On expected goals it finished 0.67–1.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Preston a 55.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 49.5% after a win, 57.0% after a draw, 58.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.6%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.

For Millwall the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 26.5% going in: 30.0% after a win, 26.0% after a draw, 20.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.0%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Preston v Millwall has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 30% / 27% / 43%: the biggest move is Millwall's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Preston win30%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Millwall win43%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.