Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result
Final score: Sheffield Utd 3-0 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Sheffield Utd, 31% draw, 34% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sheffield Utd at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. CooperG
- 8H. ChoudhuryD
- 5J. TangangaD
- 15L. KitchingD
- 3S. McCallumD
- 42Sydie PeckM
- 7J. RothwellM
- 19T. ChongM
- 22B. BreretonM
- 9T. CannonF
- 45P. BamfordF
- 23T. CampbellF
- 17A. DaviesG
- 25M. McGuinnessD
- 11R. DonovanM
- 4O. ArblasterM
- 26R. OnéF
- 10J. AyewF
- 44J. RiedewaldM
- 14H. BurrowsD
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 6R. TowlerD
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 8T. BaylissM
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 3A. ReachM
- 17R. StreetM
- 18B. HouseM
- 34F. DraperF
- 46J. GauciG
- 26Y. KonakM
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 27C. OgbeneF
- 19I. OlaofeF
- 33D. OyegokeD
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 20C. ElderD
- 22T. HamerD
Form going into Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln
Sheffield Utd
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
- L1-3Norwich5 September 2026
- W3-2Bolton1 September 2026
Lincoln
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
- D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
What these results say
- Sheffield Utd conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Utd had three goals or more.
- Lincoln scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Lincoln had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 22 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln
- 30 August 2023Sheffield Utd 0–0 LincolnLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Sheffield Utd and Lincoln
Sheffield Utd
GoalsAssists
- P. Bamford51
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sheffield Utd beat Lincoln 3–0. The model had made a win for Sheffield Utd its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Patrick Bamford 43' for Sheffield Utd, Tahith Chong 52' for Sheffield Utd, Patrick Bamford 77' for Sheffield Utd. On expected goals it finished 0.61–1.34.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sheffield Utd a 11.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.2% after a win, 12.0% after a draw, 13.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.2%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
For Lincoln the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.3% going in: 22.3% after a win, 16.0% after a draw, 15.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.8%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.