10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bolton vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result

Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
Referee: Thomas Kirk, England
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Bolton 1-2 Stoke City.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Bolton, 27% draw, 33% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bolton at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bolton0%Draw1%Stoke City99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Maksym Taloverov
34'
Jack Mcglynn
45+4'
⚽Lamine Cisséassist: Ethan Galbraith
45'
🔁Justin Devennyout: Luca Bombino
🔁Ethan Erhahonout: Atsuki Ito
45'
🔁Thierry Galeout: Jayden Nelson
56'
🔁Kyliane Dongout: Samuel Iling
56'
62'
⚽Ben Wilmotassist: Jack Mcglynn
🔁Ruben Rodriguesout: Ryan Hardie
63'
69'
🔁El Hadji Soumareout: Bosun Lawal
69'
🔁Lamine Cisséout: George Hirst
69'
🔁Jack Mcglynnout: Junior Tchamadeu
Max Conway
72'
🔁Ben Daviesout: Thelonius Bair
82'
⚽Thelonius Bairassist: Gaizka Larrazabal
90+2'

Match stats — Bolton vs Stoke City

68%Possession32%
30Shots9
5On target4
10Corners4
3xG0.71

Goals against chances

Bolton1 from 3.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Stoke City2 from 0.71 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bolton 4-2-3-1
  • 31G. BazunuG
  • 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
  • 18E. ToalD
  • 6B. DaviesD
  • 25M. ConwayD
  • 8J. SheehanM
  • 21E. ErhahonM
  • 7K. DongM
  • 20Ruben RodriguesM
  • 11T. GaleM
  • 10S. DalbyF
Substitutes
  • 26J. NelsonF
  • 4X. SimonsM
  • 9T. BairF
  • 1J. BonhamG
  • 5L. BruntD
  • 14A. FamewoD
  • 39R. HardieF
  • 16S. Iling-JuniorF
  • 17A. ItoM
Coach: S. Schumacher
Stoke City 3-4-3
  • 1V. JohanssonG
  • 16B. WilmotD
  • 40M. TalovierovD
  • 5L. GrahamD
  • 2B. JohnsonM
  • 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
  • 8E. GalbraithM
  • 17E. BocatM
  • 13J. DevennyF
  • 11L. CisséF
  • 7J. McGlynnF
Substitutes
  • 21L. BombinoD
  • 9R. BoženíkF
  • 24J. GriffithsG
  • 15G. HirstF
  • 18B. LawalD
  • 42M. ManhoefF
  • 4B. PearsonM
  • 22J. TchamadeuD
  • 10Bae Jun-HoM
Coach: M. Robins

Form going into Bolton vs Stoke City

Bolton

All competitions we cover

  • W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
  • W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
  • L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026

Stoke City

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026
  • W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
  • W1-0Norwich1 September 2026

What these results say

  • Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Bolton had three goals or more.
  • Stoke City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Bolton155282029-917
3Stoke City159242418+629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bolton vs Stoke City

  • 30 July 2024Bolton 0–1 Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
  • 29 December 2018Bolton 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 2 October 2018Stoke City 2–0 BoltonChampionship
  • 13 May 2012Stoke City 2–2 BoltonPremier League
  • 6 November 2011Bolton 5–0 Stoke CityPremier League

The full Bolton vs Stoke City record →

Leading scorers: Bolton and Stoke City

Bolton

GoalsAssists

  • S. Dalby60

Stoke City

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGlynn52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stoke City won 2–1 at Bolton. The model had leaned towards a win for Bolton at 40% and given a win for Stoke City 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Lamine Cissé 45+4' for Stoke City, Ben Wilmot 62' for Stoke City, Thelonius Bair 90+2' for Bolton. Sent off: Maksym Taloverov (Stoke City) 20'. On expected goals it finished 3.00–0.71.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bolton a 20.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 15.9% after a win, 20.3% after a draw, 23.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.9%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

For Stoke City the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.9% going in: 7.9% after a win, 11.4% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.9%, 3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.