Charlton
vs
Bristol City
Championship prediction
Our model says: Charlton 1–0 Bristol City
The model makes it 34% Charlton, 32% draw, 34% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.94, 3.13 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Charlton 1.10, Bristol City 1.08.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Charlton and Bristol City are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Charlton vs Bristol City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlton at 34% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Charlton vs Bristol City
Charlton
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stoke City5 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026
Bristol City
- W1-0Watford18 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
What these results say
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Bristol City
- 3 April 2026Charlton 1–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 16 August 2025Bristol City 0–0 CharltonChampionship
- 26 December 2019Charlton 3–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 23 October 2019Bristol City 2–1 CharltonChampionship
- 6 February 2016Charlton 0–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 26 December 2015Bristol City 1–1 CharltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Charlton and Bristol City
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Bristol City
- D. Ballard3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charlton carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.51 for Bristol City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Charlton and 1.08 for Bristol City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlton rate 0.53 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bristol City rate 0.70 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bristol City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charlton a 0.3% chance of the title and Bristol City 1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlton the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.1 expected goals for Charlton against 1.08 for Bristol City. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.38 for Bristol City.