Charlton vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Charlton 1-1 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Charlton, 31% draw, 34% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Charlton at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlton vs Bristol City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 5L. JonesD
- 12Billy Dawson KoumetioD
- 3J. EdwardsD
- 6C. CoventryM
- 34O. SkippM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 33Micah MbickM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 18I. MesíkD
- 19M. AlliF
- 17A. BellD
- 14S. CareyM
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 23C. KelmanF
- 25W. MannionG
- 2K. RamsayD
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
- 1S. TickleG
- 19G. TannerD
- 15L. McNallyD
- 5R. AtkinsonD
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 4A. RandellM
- 6B. De KeersmaeckerM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 12J. KnightM
- 10S. TwineM
- 23D. BallardF
- 45E. AdebayoF
- 11S. BellF
- 40B. CollinsG
- 2L. EissatD
- 17J. WallaceM
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 14T. HorvatM
- 3C. PringD
- 27G. YahM
Form going into Charlton vs Bristol City
Charlton
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Cardiff19 September 2026
- D0-0Portsmouth12 September 2026
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stoke City5 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026
Bristol City
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Watford18 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Southampton12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
What these results say
- Charlton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 17 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Bristol City
- 3 April 2026Charlton 1–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 16 August 2025Bristol City 0–0 CharltonChampionship
- 26 December 2019Charlton 3–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 23 October 2019Bristol City 2–1 CharltonChampionship
- 6 February 2016Charlton 0–1 Bristol CityChampionship
Leading scorers: Charlton and Bristol City
Charlton
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Bristol City
GoalsAssists
- S. Twine50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charlton and Bristol City drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Charlton at 35% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Karlan Grant 8' for Charlton, Scott Twine (penalty) 27' for Bristol City. On expected goals it finished 1.99–1.55.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Charlton a 19.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.5% after a win, 20.9% after a draw, 22.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 20.9%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.
For Bristol City the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 9.6% going in: 11.8% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 7.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.7%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.