Middlesbrough vs Wolves Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 1-0 Wolves.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Middlesbrough, 28% draw, 30% Wolves — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs Wolves
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 29A. MalandaD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 9T. ConwayM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 12L. AylingD
- 18C. BarronM
- 31S. BrynnG
- 3S. ByramD
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 22K. JosephF
- 1José SáG
- 2K. TrippierD
- 34N. DjigaD
- 24Toti GomesD
- 3Hugo BuenoD
- 20T. DoyleM
- 5M. MunetsiM
- 21Rodrigo GomesM
- 7AndréM
- 36M. ManeM
- 10A. ArmstrongF
- 8J. JamesM
- 33G. KonanD
- 37L. KrejčíD
- 28Fer LópezM
- 14S. NeaveF
- 19R. SaïdF
- 38J. TchatchouaD
- 13João VirgíniaG
- 27J. BellegardeM
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Wolves
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
- W1-0away to QPR5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley2 September 2026
Wolves
All competitions we cover
- W1-0West Brom20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sheffield Utd13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham6 September 2026
- L2-4away to West Ham1 September 2026
- W4-1Stoke City29 August 2026
What these results say
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wolves scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Wolves
- 30 March 2018Middlesbrough 1–2 WolvesChampionship
- 5 August 2017Wolves 1–0 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 4 March 2016Middlesbrough 2–1 WolvesChampionship
- 24 October 2015Wolves 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 22 September 2015Middlesbrough 3–0 WolvesLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Wolves
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Wolves
GoalsAssists
- Fer López63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough beat Wolves 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Middlesbrough at 42%. The goal: will lankshear 57' for Middlesbrough. On expected goals it finished 1.00–0.60.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Middlesbrough a 45.1% chance to finish in the top four: 50.6% after a win, 42.6% after a draw, 38.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.6%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.
For Wolves the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 46.4% going in: 53.5% after a win, 45.8% after a draw, 41.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.5%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Middlesbrough v Wolves has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Middlesbrough's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Middlesbrough win42%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Wolves win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.