Bolton
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 1-0 Cardiff.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bolton, 28% draw, 29% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Bolton 1.70, Cardiff 1.21.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Bolton vs Cardiff
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bolton at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Cardiff
Line-ups
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 20Ruben RodriguesM
- 7K. DongM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 1J. BonhamG
- 14A. FamewoD
- 17A. ItoM
- 45J. McAteeF
- 26J. NelsonF
- 39R. HardieF
- 11T. GaleF
- 4X. SimonsM
- 9T. BairF
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 11O. TannerM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 16C. WillockM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 41M. TurnerG
- 30H. TyrerG
- 45Cian AshfordF
- 47C. RobinsonF
Form going into Bolton vs Cardiff
Bolton
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
- L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026
Cardiff
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
- L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
- D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Cardiff
- 12 September 2026Bolton 1–0 CardiffChampionship
- 11 April 2026Cardiff 2–0 BoltonLeague One
- 25 October 2025Bolton 1–0 CardiffLeague One
- 13 February 2018Cardiff 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 23 December 2017Bolton 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 23 April 2016Cardiff 2–1 BoltonChampionship
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.70 goals for Bolton and 1.21 for Cardiff; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Thierry Gale 90' (Bolton).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bolton the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Bolton against 1.21 for Cardiff. Bolton's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.43 for Cardiff.