Bolton vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result
Final score: Bolton 1-0 Cardiff.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Bolton, 28% draw, 29% Cardiff — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bolton at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bolton vs Cardiff
Line-ups
- 31G. BazunuG
- 22Gaizka LarrazabalD
- 18E. ToalD
- 6B. DaviesD
- 25M. ConwayD
- 8J. SheehanM
- 21E. ErhahonM
- 16S. Iling-JuniorM
- 20Ruben RodriguesM
- 7K. DongM
- 10S. DalbyF
- 1J. BonhamG
- 14A. FamewoD
- 17A. ItoM
- 45J. McAteeF
- 26J. NelsonF
- 39R. HardieF
- 11T. GaleF
- 4X. SimonsM
- 9T. BairF
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 11O. TannerM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 16C. WillockM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 41M. TurnerG
- 30H. TyrerG
- 45Cian AshfordF
- 47C. RobinsonF
Form going into Bolton vs Cardiff
Bolton
All competitions we cover
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
- L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln29 August 2026
- D0-0away to QPR22 August 2026
Cardiff
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
- L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
- D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Derby22 August 2026
What these results say
- Bolton did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bolton vs Cardiff
- 11 April 2026Cardiff 2–0 BoltonLeague One
- 25 October 2025Bolton 1–0 CardiffLeague One
- 13 February 2018Cardiff 2–0 BoltonChampionship
- 23 December 2017Bolton 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 23 April 2016Cardiff 2–1 BoltonChampionship
Leading scorers: Bolton and Cardiff
Bolton
GoalsAssists
- S. Dalby40
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bolton beat Cardiff 1–0. The model had made a win for Bolton its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Thierry Gale 90' for Bolton.
How the call on Bolton v Cardiff has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 28% / 29%: the biggest move is Bolton's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Bolton win43%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Cardiff win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.