Charlton
vs
Portsmouth
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Charlton 0-0 Portsmouth.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Charlton, 29% draw, 30% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Charlton 1.56, Portsmouth 1.16.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Charlton vs Portsmouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlton at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlton vs Portsmouth
Line-ups
- 13A. OkonkwoG
- 20D. McNamaraD
- 5L. JonesD
- 44Tyler BindonD
- 18I. MesíkD
- 6C. CoventryM
- 34O. SkippM
- 19M. AlliM
- 9K. Ahearne-GrantM
- 7T. CampbellM
- 11M. LeaburnF
- 17A. BellD
- 21T. BrooksG
- 14S. CareyM
- 23C. KelmanF
- 8H. KnibbsM
- 32A. MwambaD
- 16T. OumaM
- 26J. Rankin-CostelloM
- 35R. NkengF
- 31D. BielicaG
- 24T. DevlinD
- 2Benjamin ArthurD
- 6C. ShaughnessyD
- 16J. MeghomaD
- 7M. PackM
- 19R. SheinM
- 11A. KamaraM
- 10A. SegecicM
- 17T. ShadeM
- 9C. BishopF
- 55M. DiaD
- 25R. Kavuma McQueenF
- 37I. MohamedM
- 5R. PooleD
- 1N. SchmidG
- 22Z. SwansonD
- 8J. SwiftM
- 27O. BaileyM
- 38E. AdamsM
Form going into Charlton vs Portsmouth
Charlton
- D0-0QPR9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Stoke City5 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom2 September 2026
- W1-0Preston29 August 2026
Portsmouth
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
- L0-2Derby1 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
- W3-1away to Lincoln22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlton vs Portsmouth
- 12 September 2026Charlton 0–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 17 February 2026Charlton 1–3 PortsmouthChampionship
- 29 December 2025Portsmouth 2–1 CharltonChampionship
- 3 August 2024Charlton 2–0 PortsmouthFriendlies Clubs
- 24 February 2024Charlton 0–0 PortsmouthLeague One
- 11 November 2023Portsmouth 2–2 CharltonLeague One
Leading scorers: Charlton and Portsmouth
Charlton
- Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur Campbell3 goals
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Charlton carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.53 for Portsmouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Charlton and 1.16 for Portsmouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Charlton rate 0.67 in attack and 1.28 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portsmouth rate 0.75 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charlton a 1% chance of the title and Portsmouth 0.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charlton the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Charlton against 1.16 for Portsmouth. Charlton's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.43 for Portsmouth.