Preston
vs
Lincoln
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Preston 0-1 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Preston, 29% draw, 33% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Preston 1.46, Lincoln 1.27.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Preston vs Lincoln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Preston at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Preston vs Lincoln
Line-ups
- 1D. IversenG
- 20L. GibbsD
- 14J. StoreyD
- 24O. OffiahD
- 3A. VukčevićD
- 4H. ClarkeM
- 17S. MillsM
- 15J. ThompsonM
- 7A. DevineM
- 10C. LangF
- 38J. KennyF
- 21L. NichollsG
- 11T. SmallD
- 2Pol ValentínD
- 37D. BurgzorgF
- 9J. ErabiF
- 16A. HughesD
- 27L. LeroyM
- 6L. LindsayD
- 23A. MoranM
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 4A. CoubișD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 33D. OyegokeM
- 8T. BaylissM
- 14C. McGrandlesM
- 3A. ReachM
- 7R. HackettM
- 18B. HouseM
- 17R. StreetF
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 34F. DraperF
- 46J. GauciG
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 26Y. KonakM
- 27C. OgbeneF
- 19I. OlaofeF
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 6R. TowlerD
Form going into Preston vs Lincoln
Preston
- L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
- W2-1Blackburn5 September 2026
- L1-3Bristol City1 September 2026
- L0-1away to Charlton29 August 2026
Lincoln
- D1-1Southampton5 September 2026
- D0-0Blackburn1 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bolton29 August 2026
- L1-3Portsmouth22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Preston vs Lincoln
- 12 September 2026Preston 0–1 LincolnChampionship
- 12 July 2024Preston 0–1 LincolnFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Preston and Lincoln
Preston
- C. Lang3 goals
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.46 goals for Preston and 1.27 for Lincoln; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: F. Draper 81' (Lincoln).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Preston the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Preston against 1.27 for Lincoln. Preston's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.26 for Lincoln.