Southampton
vs
Bristol City
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 4-1 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Southampton, 28% draw, 27% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Southampton 1.82, Bristol City 1.12.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Southampton vs Bristol City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Bristol City
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 4F. DownesM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 23S. EdozieM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 25G. LongG
- 28D. MubamaF
- 5J. StephensD
- 34WelingtonD
- 1S. TickleG
- 19G. TannerD
- 16R. DickieD
- 2L. EissatD
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 8J. WilliamsM
- 12J. KnightM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 23D. BallardM
- 10S. TwineM
- 9L. TolajF
- 45E. AdebayoF
- 40B. CollinsG
- 38N. EileD
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 14T. HorvatM
- 3C. PringD
- 4A. RandellM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 27G. YahM
Form going into Southampton vs Bristol City
Southampton
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
- W5-1Millwall29 August 2026
Bristol City
- W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
- W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Bristol City
- 12 September 2026Southampton 4–1 Bristol CityChampionship
- 21 April 2026Southampton 2–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 21 October 2025Bristol City 3–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 13 February 2024Bristol City 3–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 29 November 2023Southampton 1–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 24 September 2013Southampton 2–0 Bristol CityLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Southampton and Bristol City
Southampton
- C. Larin7 goals
- F. Azaz3 goals4 assists
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.82 goals for Southampton and 1.12 for Bristol City; the game produced 4 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Cyle Larin 38' (Southampton), Cyle Larin 61' (Southampton), lorent tolaj 66' (Bristol City), Kuryu Matsuki 82' (Southampton), Finn Azaz 85' (Southampton).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Southampton against 1.12 for Bristol City. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.42 for Bristol City.