Southampton vs Bristol City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 4-1 Bristol City.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Southampton, 28% draw, 28% Bristol City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Bristol City
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 4F. DownesM
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 11L. DobbinF
- 23S. EdozieM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 25G. LongG
- 28D. MubamaF
- 5J. StephensD
- 34WelingtonD
- 1S. TickleG
- 19G. TannerD
- 16R. DickieD
- 2L. EissatD
- 21Rio CardinesD
- 8J. WilliamsM
- 12J. KnightM
- 7Y. HirakawaM
- 23D. BallardM
- 10S. TwineM
- 9L. TolajF
- 45E. AdebayoF
- 40B. CollinsG
- 38N. EileD
- 20S. GreenwoodM
- 14T. HorvatM
- 3C. PringD
- 4A. RandellM
- 17J. WallaceM
- 27G. YahM
Form going into Southampton vs Bristol City
Southampton
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
- W5-1Millwall29 August 2026
- W3-1Stoke City22 August 2026
Bristol City
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Burnley5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Preston1 September 2026
- W2-1Portsmouth29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham22 August 2026
- L0-2Millwall15 August 2026
What these results say
- Southampton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bristol City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bristol City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 20 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Bristol City
- 21 April 2026Southampton 2–2 Bristol CityChampionship
- 21 October 2025Bristol City 3–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 13 February 2024Bristol City 3–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 29 November 2023Southampton 1–0 Bristol CityChampionship
- 24 September 2013Southampton 2–0 Bristol CityLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Southampton and Bristol City
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
- F. Azaz35
Bristol City
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Southampton beat Bristol City 4–1. The model had made a win for Southampton its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Cyle Larin 38' for Southampton, Cyle Larin 61' for Southampton, lorent tolaj 66' for Bristol City, Kuryu Matsuki 82' for Southampton, Finn Azaz 85' for Southampton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.