Blackburn vs Millwall Championship prediction & result
Final score: Blackburn 3-1 Millwall.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Blackburn, 29% draw, 33% Millwall — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Blackburn at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Blackburn vs Millwall
Line-ups
- 22B. TóthG
- 17H. CarterD
- 6Tom AtchesonD
- 15S. McLoughlinD
- 4Yuri RibeiroD
- 31Kristi MontgomeryM
- 8Sam MorsyM
- 2R. AlebiosuM
- 10T. CantwellM
- 25R. MorishitaM
- 21O. AfolayanF
- 45Harvey HigginsM
- 53F. VareM
- 1A. PearsG
- 3H. PickeringD
- 24M. BaradjiM
- 27Gady BeyukuD
- 11J. FevrierF
- 30J. GarrettM
- 9A. GuðjohnsenF
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 11R. EsseM
- 7T. ArconteM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 13L. DykesF
- 35Y. IssoufouF
- 16D. KellyM
- 29Z. LovelaceF
- 34F. MarschallG
- 44Alfie MasseyM
- 55Tristan ParkesD
- 17M. SykesM
- 12E. BaggottD
- 23D. BatthD
Form going into Blackburn vs Millwall
Blackburn
All competitions we cover
- L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
- L1-2away to Preston5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Lincoln1 September 2026
- L1-2QPR29 August 2026
- W2-1Middlesbrough22 August 2026
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
- L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
- W3-0Norwich22 August 2026
- W2-0away to Bristol City15 August 2026
What these results say
- Blackburn failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Millwall
- 14 March 2026Millwall 1–2 BlackburnChampionship
- 20 December 2025Blackburn 2–0 MillwallChampionship
- 18 April 2025Blackburn 4–1 MillwallChampionship
- 21 December 2024Millwall 1–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 5 March 2024Blackburn 1–1 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Blackburn and Millwall
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- A. Guðjohnsen81
- O. Afolayan42
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Blackburn beat Millwall 3–1. The model had made a win for Blackburn its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Oladapo Afolayan 41' for Blackburn, Lyndon Dykes (penalty) 51' for Millwall, Oladapo Afolayan 58' for Blackburn, Andri Guðjohnsen 90+3' for Blackburn.
How the call on Blackburn v Millwall has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Blackburn's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Blackburn win38%▼ −3
- Draw29%=
- Millwall win33%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.