Regular Season - 7 · 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Blackburn vs Millwall Championship prediction & result

Ewood Park, Blackburn
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Blackburn 3-1 Millwall.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Blackburn, 28% draw, 31% Millwall — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Blackburn 1.64, Millwall 1.30.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Blackburn vs Millwall

59%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%2-1 9%1-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Blackburn at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Blackburn96%Draw4%Millwall0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Hayden Carter
13'
🔁Yuri Ribeiroout: Harry Pickering
16'
Sam Morsy
38'
⚽Oladapo Afolayanassist: Sam Morsy
41'
Harry Pickering
45'
45+4'
Zak Sturge
🔁Ryan Alebiosuout: Gady Beyuku
45'
45'
🔁Jordi Osei-Tutuout: Mark Sykes
45'
🔁Romain Esseout: Yanis Ali Issoufou
Gady Beyuku
50'
51'
⚽Lyndon Dykes (pen)
⚽Oladapo Afolayanassist: Tom Atcheson
58'
🔁Oladapo Afolayanout: J. Fevrier
69'
🔁Todd Cantwellout: Andri Guðjohnsen
70'
76'
🔁Derek Mazou Sackoout: D. Kelly
81'
Jenson Metcalfe
82'
🔁Jenson Metcalfeout: Elkan Baggott
82'
🔁Jake Cooperout: Zakariya Lovelace
J. Fevrier
86'
90+2'
Mark Sykes
⚽Andri Guðjohnsenassist: J. Fevrier
90+3'

Match stats — Blackburn vs Millwall

45%Possession55%
18Shots15
4On target2
6Corners3

Line-ups

Blackburn 5-4-1
  • 22B. TóthG
  • 17H. CarterD
  • 6Tom AtchesonD
  • 15S. McLoughlinD
  • 4Yuri RibeiroD
  • 31Kristi MontgomeryM
  • 8Sam MorsyM
  • 2R. AlebiosuM
  • 10T. CantwellM
  • 25R. MorishitaM
  • 21O. AfolayanF
Substitutes
  • 45Harvey HigginsM
  • 53F. VareM
  • 1A. PearsG
  • 3H. PickeringD
  • 24M. BaradjiM
  • 27Gady BeyukuD
  • 11J. FevrierF
  • 30J. GarrettM
  • 9A. GuðjohnsenF
Coach: Tony Mowbray
Millwall 4-2-3-1
  • 15M. CrocombeG
  • 2J. Osei-TutuD
  • 6C. TaylorD
  • 5J. CooperD
  • 3Zak Norton SturgeD
  • 49D. Mazou-SackoM
  • 14Jenson MetcalfeM
  • 11R. EsseM
  • 7T. ArconteM
  • 10C. NeghliM
  • 13L. DykesF
Substitutes
  • 35Y. IssoufouF
  • 16D. KellyM
  • 29Z. LovelaceF
  • 34F. MarschallG
  • 44Alfie MasseyM
  • 55Tristan ParkesD
  • 17M. SykesM
  • 12E. BaggottD
  • 23D. BatthD
Coach: A. Neil

Form going into Blackburn vs Millwall

Blackburn

  • L1-2Sheffield Utd8 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Preston5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Lincoln1 September 2026
  • L1-2QPR29 August 2026

Millwall

  • W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
  • L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
  • L1-5away to Southampton29 August 2026
  • W3-0Norwich22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Blackburn7223101008
13Millwall6303111109

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Blackburn vs Millwall

  • 12 September 2026Blackburn 3–1 MillwallChampionship
  • 14 March 2026Millwall 1–2 BlackburnChampionship
  • 20 December 2025Blackburn 2–0 MillwallChampionship
  • 18 April 2025Blackburn 4–1 MillwallChampionship
  • 21 December 2024Millwall 1–0 BlackburnChampionship
  • 5 March 2024Blackburn 1–1 MillwallChampionship

Leading scorers: Blackburn and Millwall

Blackburn

  • A. Guðjohnsen3 goals1 assists

Millwall

  • L. Dykes3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.64 goals for Blackburn and 1.30 for Millwall; the game produced 3 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Oladapo Afolayan 41' (Blackburn), Lyndon Dykes 51' (Millwall), Oladapo Afolayan 58' (Blackburn), Andri Guðjohnsen 90' (Blackburn).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Blackburn the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Blackburn against 1.3 for Millwall. Blackburn's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.36 for Millwall.