Santa Fe
vs
Jaguares
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Santa Fe 2–0 Jaguares
The model makes it 56% Santa Fe, 26% draw, 18% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Santa Fe 2.17, Jaguares 0.76.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Santa Fe are 7th on 19 points from 11 games; Jaguares are bottom on 7 points from 10 games — Primera A.
- Santa Fe have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Deportivo Pereira.
- Jaguares have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Alianza Valledupar.
- Last 6 meetings: Jaguares 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 February 2026, ended Jaguares 3–1 Santa Fe.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Santa Fe vs Jaguares
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Fe at 56% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Santa Fe vs Jaguares
Santa Fe
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima12 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC5 September 2026
Jaguares
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
- D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026
- D3-3away to Junior6 September 2026
- D2-2America de Cali29 August 2026
What these results say
- Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Santa Fe | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 19 |
| 20 | Jaguares | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Jaguares
- 18 February 2026Jaguares 3–1 Santa FePrimera A
- 15 November 2024Santa Fe 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Jaguares 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
- 20 July 2023Santa Fe 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
- 27 January 2023Jaguares 2–2 Santa FePrimera A
- 17 October 2022Jaguares 2–1 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Jaguares
Santa Fe
- H. Rodallega14 goals2 assists
- N. Bustos11 goals5 assists
Jaguares
- A. Rentería10 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.29 for Jaguares. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.17 goals for Santa Fe and 0.76 for Jaguares. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Santa Fe rate 0.79 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jaguares rate 0.61 and 1.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santa Fe a 1.3% chance of the title and Jaguares 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Santa Fe against 0.76 for Jaguares. Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.89 for Jaguares.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Santa Fe at home · Jaguares away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Santa Fe 34, Jaguares 29.
Santa Fe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Jaguares have let in 9 there.
Jaguares score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Santa Fe have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Santa Fe
- at Llaneros18 Oct · Primera Awin 36%
- vs Bucaramanga27 Oct · Primera Awin 41%
- at Atletico Nacional30 Oct · Primera Awin 25%
- at Cucuta2 Nov · Primera Awin 41%
Jaguares
- at Millonarios17 Oct · Primera Awin 18%
- vs Llaneros26 Oct · Primera Awin 37%
- at Deportivo Pereira30 Oct · Primera Awin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.