Chico
vs
Atletico Nacional
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Chico 0–1 Atletico Nacional
The model makes it 23% Chico, 28% draw, 49% Atletico Nacional — fair odds of 4.35, 3.57 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (12%).
Expected goals: Chico 0.89, Atletico Nacional 1.79.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Chico are 14th on 11 points from 10 games; Atletico Nacional are 3rd on 22 points from 10 games — Primera A.
- Chico have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Deportivo Pasto.
- Atletico Nacional have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Junior.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Nacional 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Atletico Nacional 4–0 Chico.
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Chico vs Atletico Nacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chico vs Atletico Nacional
Chico
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
- W2-1Independiente Medellin12 September 2026
- W2-0Once Caldas5 September 2026
Atletico Nacional
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas13 September 2026
What these results say
- Chico scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chico had three goals or more.
- Atletico Nacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Chico | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chico vs Atletico Nacional
- 17 January 2026Atletico Nacional 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 6 October 2025Chico 1–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 16 April 2025Atletico Nacional 4–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 29 September 2024Atletico Nacional 6–2 ChicoPrimera A
- 17 March 2024Chico 2–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 22 October 2023Chico 1–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Leading scorers: Chico and Atletico Nacional
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Atletico Nacional
- A. Morelos14 goals6 assists
- A. Sarmiento8 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Chico carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.76 for Atletico Nacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.89 goals for Chico and 1.79 for Atletico Nacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chico rate 0.52 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Nacional rate 0.98 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chico a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Nacional 51.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Chico against 1.79 for Atletico Nacional. Chico's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.18 for Atletico Nacional.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chico at home · Atletico Nacional away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Chico 29, Atletico Nacional 35.
Chico score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Atletico Nacional have let in 8 there.
Atletico Nacional score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Chico have let in 16 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chico
- at Deportivo Pereira20 Oct · Primera Awin 28%
- vs Bucaramanga23 Oct · Primera Awin 27%
- vs Junior28 Oct · Primera Awin 29%
Atletico Nacional
- at Cucuta21 Oct · Primera Awin 47%
- vs Independiente Medellin25 Oct · Primera Awin 52%
- vs Santa Fe30 Oct · Primera Awin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.