Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Osasuna
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Deportivo La Coruna 1–0 Osasuna
The model makes it 50% Deportivo La Coruna, 26% draw, 24% Osasuna — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 1.74, Osasuna 1.06.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Deportivo La Coruna's rating is built from 9 La Liga matches and Osasuna's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 847 matches.
Key facts
- Deportivo La Coruna are 9th on 11 points from 9 games; Osasuna are 10th on 11 points from 9 games — La Liga.
- Deportivo La Coruna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Levante.
- Osasuna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Racing Santander.
- Last 6 meetings: Osasuna 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 December 2021, ended Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 Osasuna.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo La Coruna at 50% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,048 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruna
- D1-1Levante16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
- D1-1Real Betis20 September 2026
- L0-1Sevilla16 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe13 September 2026
Osasuna
- W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
- D1-1Rayo Vallecano19 September 2026
- L0-4away to Atletico Madrid16 September 2026
- L0-2Espanyol12 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo La Coruna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo La Coruna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Osasuna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
- 16 December 2021Deportivo La Coruna 1–2 OsasunaCopa del Rey
- 13 April 2019Osasuna 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 24 November 2018Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 OsasunaSegunda División
- 30 April 2017Osasuna 2–2 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
- 18 December 2016Deportivo La Coruna 2–0 OsasunaLa Liga
- 20 January 2013Osasuna 2–1 Deportivo La CorunaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo La Coruna carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.69 for Osasuna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.06 for Osasuna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo La Coruna rate 0.93 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Osasuna rate 0.84 and 1.15.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.06 for Osasuna. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.15 for Osasuna.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo La Coruna at home · Osasuna away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Deportivo La CorunaOsasuna
Deportivo La Coruna are 8th after 9 La Liga matches (between 4th and 10th so far); Osasuna are 9th after 9 (between 4th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Deportivo La Coruna 9, Osasuna 9.
Deportivo La Coruna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Osasuna have let in 3 there.
Osasuna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Deportivo La Coruna have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo La Coruna
- at Espanyol7 Nov · La Ligawin 31%
- at Alaves22 Nov · La Ligawin 28%
- vs Barcelona29 Nov · La Ligawin 19%
- at Racing Santander6 Dec · La Ligawin 40%
Osasuna
- vs Athletic Club7 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
- vs Malaga22 Nov · La Ligawin 52%
- at Valencia29 Nov · La Ligawin 27%
- vs Elche6 Dec · La Ligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.