Benfica
vs
Alverca
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Benfica 2–0 Alverca
The model makes it 70% Benfica, 18% draw, 12% Alverca — fair odds of 1.43, 5.56 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Benfica 2.72, Alverca 0.89.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 58% of the time, over 1,389 settled matches.
One-sided: Benfica are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Benfica's rating is built from 42 Primeira Liga matches and Alverca's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 687 matches.
Key facts
- Benfica are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; Alverca are 8th on 11 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Vitória SC.
- Alverca are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Famalicao.
- Last 2 meetings: Benfica 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Benfica 2–1 Alverca.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Benfica vs Alverca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 70% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 339 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.8%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Benfica vs Alverca
Benfica
- W2-0Vitória SC11 October 2026
- L1-3away to FC Porto20 September 2026
- W3-1GIL Vicente13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Moreirense9 September 2026
- W3-0away to Maritimo5 September 2026
Alverca
- W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
What these results say
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
- Alverca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Alverca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Alverca.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Alverca
- 8 February 2026Benfica 2–1 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 31 August 2025Alverca 1–2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Benfica and Alverca
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis83
- G. Prestianni53
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
- D. Camara30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Benfica carry a model rating of 7.23 against 6.76 for Alverca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.72 goals for Benfica and 0.89 for Alverca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benfica rate 1.62 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alverca rate 0.93 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Benfica a 26.2% chance of the title and Alverca 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.72 expected goals for Benfica against 0.89 for Alverca. Benfica's attack/defence rating is 1.62/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.11 for Alverca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benfica at home · Alverca away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Benfica 8, Alverca 8.
Benfica score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Alverca have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Benfica
- vs Lech Poznan5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 63%
- at Estrela8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 65%
- at Plzen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Alverca
- vs Casa Pia7 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 57%
- at Academico Viseu28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 29%
- vs Moreirense6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 50%
- at Vitória SC13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.