Dalian Zhixing
vs
Qingdao Jonoon
Super League prediction
The model makes it 76% Dalian Zhixing, 16% draw, 8% Qingdao Jonoon — fair odds of 1.32, 6.25 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Dalian Zhixing 2.39, Qingdao Jonoon 0.64.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dalian Zhixing
- D1-1away to SHANGHAI SIPG19 August 2026
- L1-3away to Yunnan Yukun15 August 2026
- W1-0Shenyang Urban8 August 2026
- D1-1away to Henan Jianye31 July 2026
- L2-3away to Hangzhou Greentown26 July 2026
Qingdao Jonoon
- L1-3away to Shandong Luneng14 August 2026
- L0-1Shanghai Shenhua8 August 2026
- L0-2away to Qingdao Youth Island2 August 2026
- L0-2Tianjin Teda25 July 2026
- L1-5away to Henan Jianye17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dalian Zhixing | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 33 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
A clear gap in the ratings
Dalian Zhixing carry a model rating of 6.25 against 5.72 for Qingdao Jonoon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Dalian Zhixing L-D-W-L-D; Qingdao Jonoon L-L-L-L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.39 goals for Dalian Zhixing and 0.64 for Qingdao Jonoon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dalian Zhixing rate 0.44 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Jonoon rate 0.30 and 2.87.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 43% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (11%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dalian Zhixing the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing against 0.64 for Qingdao Jonoon. Dalian Zhixing's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.3/2.87 for Qingdao Jonoon.