SHANGHAI SIPG
vs
Beijing Guoan
Super League prediction
The model makes it 29% SHANGHAI SIPG, 23% draw, 48% Beijing Guoan — fair odds of 3.45, 4.35 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.49, Beijing Guoan 1.98.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
SHANGHAI SIPG
- D1-1Dalian Zhixing19 August 2026
- W3-2away to Wuhan Three Towns14 August 2026
- W3-2away to Chongqing Tongliang Long9 August 2026
- L0-1Shandong Luneng1 August 2026
- W2-0Shanghai Shenhua25 July 2026
Beijing Guoan
- W3-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 August 2026
- W4-2away to Tianjin Teda15 August 2026
- W4-0Sichuan Jiuniu7 August 2026
- W2-1Hangzhou Greentown1 August 2026
- D2-2away to Chengdu Better City26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 26 |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 45 | 29 | +16 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
SHANGHAI SIPG
No league goals recorded yet.
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning10 goals6 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SHANGHAI SIPG carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.61 for Beijing Guoan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): SHANGHAI SIPG W-L-W-W-D; Beijing Guoan D-W-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.98 for Beijing Guoan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.67 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beijing Guoan rate 0.73 and 1.18.
That points to 67% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 0% chance of the title and Beijing Guoan 0.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.98 for Beijing Guoan. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.18 for Beijing Guoan.