FC Vaduz
vs
Lausanne
Super League prediction
The model makes it 45% FC Vaduz, 24% draw, 31% Lausanne — fair odds of 2.22, 4.17 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Vaduz 1.75, Lausanne 1.41.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
FC Vaduz
- L2-3away to FC Sion9 August 2026
- L2-3FC St. Gallen2 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Lugano26 July 2026
Lausanne
- D2-2BSC Young Boys8 August 2026
- W1-0away to FC Basel 18931 August 2026
- D1-1Grasshoppers25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 0 |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: FC Vaduz vs Lausanne
- 23 April 2023FC Vaduz 1–1 LausanneChallenge League
- 5 March 2023Lausanne 0–0 FC VaduzChallenge League
- 20 November 2022FC Vaduz 1–0 LausanneChallenge League
- 28 August 2022Lausanne 3–1 FC VaduzChallenge League
- 18 April 2021Lausanne 2–1 FC VaduzSuper League
- 3 March 2021FC Vaduz 0–3 LausanneSuper League
Leading scorers
FC Vaduz
- M. Monsberger2 goals1 assists
Lausanne
- F. Mollet2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Vaduz carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.48 for Lausanne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): FC Vaduz L-L-L; Lausanne D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.75 goals for FC Vaduz and 1.41 for Lausanne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Vaduz rate 0.73 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lausanne rate 0.60 and 1.27.
That points to 61% for over two and a half goals and 63% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lausanne, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Vaduz the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Vaduz against 1.41 for Lausanne. FC Vaduz's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.27 for Lausanne.