Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island Super League prediction & result
Final score: Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Qingdao Youth Island.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Wuhan Three Towns, 33% draw, 30% Qingdao Youth Island — fair odds of 2.70, 3.03 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wuhan Three Towns at 37% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island
Line-ups
- 22Fang JingqiG
- 23Ming TianD
- 2He GuanD
- 11Li AngD
- 4Xu HaofengD
- 50A. LeauteyM
- 18Zhang XiaobinM
- 20Adriano FirminoM
- 10K. BevisM
- 7Gustavo SauerF
- 29J. CadizF
- 31Guo JiayuG
- 28Wang DennyD
- 19Liu YimingD
- 5Li ShenyuanD
- 8Wang JinxianM
- 12Liao ChengjianM
- 15Chen ZhechaoD
- 16Min ZixiM
- 13Zheng KaimuM
- 16H. LiG
- 19Dong YuD
- 5S. MemisevicD
- 2Bruno VianaD
- 22Wang GengruiD
- 28Zhang ChengdongM
- 10N. Da LuzM
- 21Meng JingchaoM
- 8X. ZhangM
- 11DavidsonM
- 9A. YakubuF
- 37Dong HangG
- 36Sun JieD
- 15Wang PengD
- 20He LonghaiM
- 4Lohman ElnizarD
- 33Liu ZhichengD
- 35Nan SongM
- 18B. BraunshtainM
- 31Xie AlexanderM
Form going into Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao Youth Island
Wuhan Three Towns
- W5-1away to Qingdao Jonoon29 August 2026
- D0-0Tianjin Teda22 August 2026
Qingdao Youth Island
- D1-1away to Tianjin Teda29 August 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng22 August 2026
- D0-0Chongqing Tongliang Long14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
What these results say
- Qingdao Youth Island went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Qingdao Youth Island had two goals or fewer.
- Qingdao Youth Island failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Wuhan Three Towns and Qingdao Youth Island
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz18 goals6 assists
Qingdao Youth Island
- Davidson9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.