Wuhan Three Towns
vs
Qingdao Youth Island
Super League prediction
The model makes it 46% Wuhan Three Towns, 32% draw, 22% Qingdao Youth Island — fair odds of 2.17, 3.13 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.17, Qingdao Youth Island 0.72.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wuhan Three Towns
- L2-3SHANGHAI SIPG14 August 2026
- D1-1away to Chengdu Better City1 August 2026
- W1-0Chongqing Tongliang Long25 July 2026
- W2-0Sichuan Jiuniu18 July 2026
- L2-3away to Dalian Zhixing4 July 2026
Qingdao Youth Island
- D0-0Chongqing Tongliang Long14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
- W2-0Qingdao Jonoon2 August 2026
- W1-0away to Shenyang Urban25 July 2026
- D1-1Chengdu Better City17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 15 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz14 goals6 assists
Qingdao Youth Island
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wuhan Three Towns carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.43 for Qingdao Youth Island. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Wuhan Three Towns L-W-W-D-L; Qingdao Youth Island D-W-W-D-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 0.72 for Qingdao Youth Island. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.62 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.32 and 1.00.
That points to 29% for over two and a half goals and 36% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (17%), 0-0 (16%), 1-1 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Qingdao Youth Island, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wuhan Three Towns the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns against 0.72 for Qingdao Youth Island. Wuhan Three Towns's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.32/1 for Qingdao Youth Island.