CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 3-1 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% CSKA Sofia, 28% draw, 23% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 5J. GbaminD
- 94I. SoletM
- 32F. RodriguezD
- 19A. YordanovD
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 11M. BrahimiM
- 8S. SensiM
- 7M. EbongM
- 10J. ZwartsF
- 28I. PittasF
- 2PastorD
- 99J. Eto'oM
- 9L. GodoyF
- 6B. JordaoM
- 3T. OuorouD
- 14T. IvanovD
- 17A. MartinoD
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 38Leo PereiraM
- 31D. HristovG
- 50E. TombakD
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 5L. SquadroneD
- 37V. KerchevD
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 24D. TelesM
- 8A. DonchevD
- 11M. AchiM
- 10C. SidneyF
- 19G. LazarovF
- 9J. PadillaF
- 7M. Barandas
- 26Joao BandaroD
- 18P. AndreevM
- 99I. BounaasM
- 13E. NyagolovD
- 14A. TodorovM
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 29B. BeyhanM
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia
- L0-2OFI27 August 2026
- L0-3away to OFI20 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- L1-3Maccabi Tel Aviv13 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
Cherno More Varna
- W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for CSKA Sofia had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
- 6 December 2025Cherno More Varna 2–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 9 August 2025CSKA Sofia 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 22 April 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaCup
- 9 April 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA SofiaCup
- 15 March 2025CSKA Sofia 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 28 September 2024Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.